{ "ticker": { "uuid": "bc1b954f-210c-4dd1-9faf-3debfb8b9220", "symbol": "EBRT", "name": "WisdomTree Brent Crude Oil - EUR Daily Hedged", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 85.013, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Re-acceleration watch", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 34.179, "architecture_energy": 29.333, "architecture_maturity": 47.433, "architecture_confidence": 55.337, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The prior uptrend is attempting to re-accelerate.", "body": "Positive Trend survived a recompression and Fast Activity is strengthening again. Promotion requires renewed confirmation across the completed evidence set." }, "scores": { "balance": 45.75, "rotation_up": 59.89, "upward_expansion": 62.64, "deceleration": 65.27, "rotation_down": 10.02, "downward_expansion": 14.98 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.100333, 6.918927, 7.098976, 7.0254 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 6.95, "trend_reference": 6.692533, "distance_from_trend": 0.038471, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 5.455962, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.273836, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 2.161321, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.358749, "excess_performance": 0.187857, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.038471, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.126218, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.273836, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.193341, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.021613, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.2564, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.358749, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.071653, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 55227, "relative_activity": 0.518809, "balance": 1.071653, "dry_up": 0.833254, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.066397, "annualized_volatility": 0.445599, "from_high_reference": -0.169654, "from_low_reference": 0.568849 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.692533, "fair_value_reference": 5.455962, "structural_low": 5.006, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.037003, "positive_rate": 0.909091, "directional_follow_through": 0.909091, "median_excess_return": 0.0157, "regime_survival": 0.363636, "best_return": 0.151187, "worst_return": -0.010903, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.003268, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.014792, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.279618, "worst_return": -0.112803, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.033948, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.093395, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.331728, "worst_return": -0.090121, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.053928, 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5.405269, "relative_strength": -1.751522, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "up", "direction": -5.005443, "energy": 36.138484, "activity_lines": [ 6.442867, 6.835, 7.101429, 6.847215 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 7.168, "volume": 161695, "typical_volume": 219543.35, "trend": 6.437617, "fair_value": 5.419372, "relative_strength": 9.782792, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 2.489515, "energy": 24.365883, "activity_lines": [ 6.641, 6.837055, 7.109305, 6.900062 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 7.389, "volume": 59104, "typical_volume": 153841.8, "trend": 6.5297, "fair_value": 5.433635, "relative_strength": 13.017446, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 31.381518, "energy": 18.009825, "activity_lines": [ 6.9142, 6.889455, 7.129967, 6.961442 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7.19, "volume": 78772, "typical_volume": 123806.8, "trend": 6.61895, "fair_value": 5.445737, "relative_strength": 9.011765, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 33.569362, "energy": 24.814904, "activity_lines": [ 7.080467, 6.919236, 7.126071, 7.004042 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.95, "volume": 55227, "typical_volume": 106449.5, "trend": 6.692533, "fair_value": 5.455962, "relative_strength": 2.161321, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Re-acceleration watch", "gate": "up", "direction": 34.179344, "energy": 29.33341, "activity_lines": [ 7.100333, 6.918927, 7.098976, 7.0254 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }