{ "ticker": { "uuid": "bc1e94ed-58cd-4c24-83d9-aad1da949f36", "symbol": "XUHC", "name": "Xtrackers MSCI USA Health Care UCITS ETF 1D", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 87.736, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 71.846, "architecture_energy": 58.47, "architecture_maturity": 13.404, "architecture_confidence": 72.168, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 15.31, "rotation_up": 71.06, "upward_expansion": 84.42, "deceleration": 55.13, "rotation_down": 14.5, "downward_expansion": 8.76 }, "activity_lines": [ 65.935332, 65.237272, 63.266619, 62.413216 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 66.574997, "trend_reference": 61.876887, "distance_from_trend": 0.075927, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 57.299616, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.161875, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 1.211036, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.056662, "excess_performance": 0.005426, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.075927, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.012366, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.161875, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.133808, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.01211, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.074947, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.056662, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.805358, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 82338, "relative_activity": 0.882395, "balance": 1.805358, "dry_up": 0.504603, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.032953, "annualized_volatility": 0.166099, "from_high_reference": -0.0211, "from_low_reference": 0.267721 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 61.876887, "fair_value_reference": 57.299616, "structural_low": 57.32, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 27, "median_return": -0.001091, "positive_rate": 0.481481, "directional_follow_through": 0.481481, "median_excess_return": -0.006123, "regime_survival": 0.703704, "best_return": 0.069438, "worst_return": -0.079855, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.041867, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.03354, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.093764, "worst_return": -0.091227, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.039283, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.019166, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.074278, "worst_return": -0.058936, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"fair_value": 57.036974, "relative_strength": 3.141366, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "up", "direction": 75.7435, "energy": 85.654187, "activity_lines": [ 65.109, 63.716, 61.880167, 61.583232 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 65.885002, "volume": 15855, "typical_volume": 92651.4, "trend": 61.682521, "fair_value": 57.122692, "relative_strength": 1.894896, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 70.139381, "energy": 83.314831, "activity_lines": [ 65.621, 64.326455, 62.358786, 61.861579 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 65.434998, "volume": 38782, "typical_volume": 92691.15, "trend": 61.777101, "fair_value": 57.209907, "relative_strength": -0.102589, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.393166, "energy": 67.071018, "activity_lines": [ 65.613333, 64.724818, 62.770476, 62.103675 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 66.574997, "volume": 82338, "typical_volume": 93312.0, "trend": 61.876887, "fair_value": 57.299616, "relative_strength": 1.211036, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 71.845918, "energy": 58.470149, "activity_lines": [ 65.935332, 65.237272, 63.266619, 62.413216 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }