{ "ticker": { "uuid": "bc220633-aa5f-42db-a0ed-168783c7d7c7", "symbol": "CNY", "name": "HSBC MSCI China UCITS ETF", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -8.356, "architecture_energy": 19.917, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 42.801, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 52.72, "rotation_up": 42.62, "upward_expansion": 22.78, "deceleration": 41.3, "rotation_down": 16.82, "downward_expansion": 54.45 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.599467, 6.488364, 6.521152, 6.58897 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 6.705, "trend_reference": 6.723156, "distance_from_trend": -0.002701, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 6.029483, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.112036, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.369906, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.058683, "excess_performance": -0.111995, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.002701, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.038333, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.112036, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.039911, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.103699, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.068047, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.058683, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.588297, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 57452, "relative_activity": 0.536157, "balance": 0.588297, "dry_up": 0.962873, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.028991, "annualized_volatility": 0.168727, "from_high_reference": -0.232029, "from_low_reference": 0.114343 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.723156, "fair_value_reference": 6.029483, "structural_low": 6.017, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 29, "median_return": -0.0048, "positive_rate": 0.448276, "directional_follow_through": 0.551724, "median_excess_return": -0.020929, "regime_survival": 0.827586, "best_return": 0.133685, "worst_return": -0.094777, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.023552, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.00731, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.210251, "worst_return": -0.100289, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.011063, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.088446, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.083489, "worst_return": -0.154918, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"gate": "down", "direction": -63.06428, "energy": 54.760942, "activity_lines": [ 6.336333, 6.377673, 6.507157, 6.614851 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 6.507, "volume": 78606, "typical_volume": 107581.15, "trend": 6.763425, "fair_value": 6.012499, "relative_strength": -9.83893, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.204717, "energy": 34.749556, "activity_lines": [ 6.4016, 6.390145, 6.499229, 6.597128 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.676, "volume": 187655, "typical_volume": 110446.15, "trend": 6.744015, "fair_value": 6.020018, "relative_strength": -8.807815, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -21.55354, "energy": 20.831998, "activity_lines": [ 6.513933, 6.437564, 6.508152, 6.591487 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.705, "volume": 57452, "typical_volume": 107155.1, "trend": 6.723156, "fair_value": 6.029483, "relative_strength": -10.369906, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -8.355877, "energy": 19.917173, "activity_lines": [ 6.599467, 6.488364, 6.521152, 6.58897 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }