{ "ticker": { "uuid": "bc244f57-e640-4a84-aca3-1711acedd17e", "symbol": "000010", "name": "Shenzhen Ecobeauty Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -71.486, "architecture_energy": 85.972, "architecture_maturity": 65.471, "architecture_confidence": 95.356, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 0.0, "rotation_up": 28.46, "upward_expansion": 20.71, "deceleration": 37.74, "rotation_down": 63.51, "downward_expansion": 98.71 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.564, 1.678364, 2.033714, 2.474774 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 1.54, "trend_reference": 2.967667, "distance_from_trend": -0.481074, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.928141, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.474069, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -57.471266, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.548387, "excess_performance": -0.555787, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.481074, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.177476, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.474069, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.310838, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.574713, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.111991, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.548387, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.628945, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 126996903, "relative_activity": 1.010706, "balance": 0.628945, "dry_up": 0.855577, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.173327, "annualized_volatility": 0.732248, "from_high_reference": -0.706667, "from_low_reference": 0.1 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.967667, "fair_value_reference": 2.928141, "structural_low": 1.4, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 28, "median_return": 0.002874, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.464286, "median_excess_return": 0.007453, "regime_survival": 0.785714, "best_return": 0.391459, "worst_return": -0.289216, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": 0.018609, "regime_survival": 0.454545, "best_return": 0.626506, "worst_return": -0.379032, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.037634, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": 0.060478, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.704819, "worst_return": -0.557895, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.079245, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.089965, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.372414, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.402516, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.132678, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.126316, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.027211, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.201735, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-04-10", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.229333, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-05-08", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.379032, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-07-28", "close": 2.86, "volume": 470540202, "typical_volume": 77798023.3, "trend": 2.820667, "fair_value": 3.609359, "relative_strength": -4.486947, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", 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"typical_volume": 169127170.75, "trend": 3.174333, "fair_value": 2.944167, "relative_strength": -53.710483, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.271788, "energy": 85.762306, "activity_lines": [ 1.767333, 1.909273, 2.396238, 2.781118 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.44, "volume": 110731200, "typical_volume": 148051619.5, "trend": 3.1, "fair_value": 2.938718, "relative_strength": -59.97545, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -83.608816, "energy": 88.345366, "activity_lines": [ 1.648, 1.798545, 2.253667, 2.669226 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.58, "volume": 99587465, "typical_volume": 140842727.05, "trend": 3.034, "fair_value": 2.934103, "relative_strength": -54.825521, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.500164, "energy": 84.355995, "activity_lines": [ 1.606, 1.736182, 2.138571, 2.571161 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.54, "volume": 126996903, "typical_volume": 125651675.35, "trend": 2.967667, "fair_value": 2.928141, "relative_strength": -57.471266, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.485597, "energy": 85.972235, "activity_lines": [ 1.564, 1.678364, 2.033714, 2.474774 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }