{ "ticker": { "uuid": "bc28c970-3b1b-4d10-8790-eccb575685b9", "symbol": "CBUQ", "name": "iShares MSCI ACWI SRI UCITS ETF", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 65.309, "architecture_energy": 46.084, "architecture_maturity": 63.106, "architecture_confidence": 80.088, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 20.05, "rotation_up": 43.23, "upward_expansion": 69.06, "deceleration": 85.46, "rotation_down": 27.61, "downward_expansion": 19.06 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.134467, 7.145568, 7.040837, 6.905009 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 7.268, "trend_reference": 6.752588, "distance_from_trend": 0.076328, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 5.839236, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.244683, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 3.343801, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.120222, "excess_performance": 0.055582, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.076328, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.044917, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.244683, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.038035, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.033438, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.05432, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.120222, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.879266, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 41192, "relative_activity": 0.636586, "balance": 3.879266, "dry_up": 0.906442, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.021097, "annualized_volatility": 0.121493, "from_high_reference": -0.001511, "from_low_reference": 0.239491 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.752588, "fair_value_reference": 5.839236, "structural_low": 6.107, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of 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0.05246, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.157733, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.05246, "worst_return": 0.05246, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-06-14", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.095871, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.004421, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.028884, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.091161, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.140919, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.00055, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.017343, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.056435, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.000834, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.024301, "active": 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}, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 7.225, "volume": 38005, "typical_volume": 58227.8, "trend": 6.651754, "fair_value": 5.782113, "relative_strength": 8.946096, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 71.995154, "energy": 87.056713, "activity_lines": [ 7.207478, 7.119076, 6.918735, 6.796494 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 7.084, "volume": 97993, "typical_volume": 62771.15, "trend": 6.678254, "fair_value": 5.796204, "relative_strength": 7.506194, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.768321, "energy": 67.07052, "activity_lines": [ 7.1746, 7.127089, 6.950608, 6.824381 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 7.084, "volume": 29569, "typical_volume": 63825.75, "trend": 6.704521, "fair_value": 5.809781, "relative_strength": 6.064995, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.836582, "energy": 59.260738, "activity_lines": [ 7.140333, 7.130285, 6.980124, 6.850558 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7.008, "volume": 65861, "typical_volume": 66068.85, "trend": 6.727488, "fair_value": 5.823527, "relative_strength": 2.565624, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 48.217742, "energy": 41.211514, "activity_lines": [ 7.089467, 7.115169, 6.999593, 6.870137 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.268, "volume": 41192, "typical_volume": 64707.65, "trend": 6.752588, "fair_value": 5.839236, "relative_strength": 3.343801, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.308848, "energy": 46.084048, "activity_lines": [ 7.134467, 7.145568, 7.040837, 6.905009 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }