{ "ticker": { "uuid": "bc39f16d-5628-48e3-aab9-e381dfde92a2", "symbol": "SPSC", "name": "SPS Commerce Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Structural repair", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 50.799, "architecture_energy": 69.188, "architecture_maturity": 15.9, "architecture_confidence": 55.419, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 27.26, "rotation_up": 72.62, "upward_expansion": 62.22, "deceleration": 23.83, "rotation_down": 16.3, "downward_expansion": 22.88 }, "activity_lines": [ 69.064667, 64.799364, 60.758548, 60.168204 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 73.38, "trend_reference": 62.517833, "distance_from_trend": 0.173745, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 140.458365, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.477568, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -18.247094, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.077329, "excess_performance": -0.264783, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.173745, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.116243, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.477568, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.146207, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.182471, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.336387, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.077329, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.294388, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3186585, "relative_activity": 1.024341, "balance": 1.294388, "dry_up": 1.002952, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.090773, "annualized_volatility": 0.622604, "from_high_reference": -0.374813, "from_low_reference": 0.49633 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 62.517833, "fair_value_reference": 140.458365, "structural_low": 49.04, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.010058, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.098505, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.187613, "worst_return": -0.040812, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.019372, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.146243, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.257356, "worst_return": -0.02481, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.080896, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.137613, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.114701, "worst_return": -0.002546, "sufficient": false }, { 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57.303238, 59.118387 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 61.16, "volume": 2407725, "typical_volume": 3091421.3, "trend": 63.7055, "fair_value": 141.675288, "relative_strength": -29.799373, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -3.394397, "energy": 20.655821, "activity_lines": [ 61.847333, 59.556818, 57.691071, 58.888011 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 73.39, "volume": 3889312, "typical_volume": 3136057.4, "trend": 63.2215, "fair_value": 141.075288, "relative_strength": -15.176951, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 45.425334, "energy": 58.621437, "activity_lines": [ 65.941667, 62.357818, 59.255857, 59.512817 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 73.38, "volume": 3186585, "typical_volume": 3110862.15, "trend": 62.517833, "fair_value": 140.458365, "relative_strength": -18.247094, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 50.798831, "energy": 69.188279, "activity_lines": [ 69.064667, 64.799364, 60.758548, 60.168204 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }