{ "ticker": { "uuid": "bc3dcb1f-c5f3-40ea-8466-dff47bc30b37", "symbol": "ISIF", "name": "IA Clarington Strategic Income Fund ETF", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 59.694, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 62.383, "architecture_energy": 67.128, "architecture_maturity": 22.057, "architecture_confidence": 75.134, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 10.43, "rotation_up": 66.92, "upward_expansion": 87.55, "deceleration": 48.96, "rotation_down": 17.25, "downward_expansion": 16.55 }, "activity_lines": [ 13.592, 13.535091, 13.418143, 13.334645 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 13.59, "trend_reference": 13.249333, "distance_from_trend": 0.025712, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 12.031859, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.129501, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -7.75935, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.027211, "excess_performance": -0.09321, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.025712, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.014316, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.129501, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.018804, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.077593, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.017159, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.027211, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 20.0, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 20.0, "dry_up": 0.961538, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.011604, "annualized_volatility": 0.079784, "from_high_reference": -0.008029, "from_low_reference": 0.080286 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 13.249333, "fair_value_reference": 12.031859, "structural_low": 12.75, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 35, "median_return": 0.007098, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.007733, "regime_survival": 0.771429, "best_return": 0.031866, "worst_return": -0.030568, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.01176, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.009876, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.043966, "worst_return": -0.009224, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.041139, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.040192, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.053913, "worst_return": -0.072878, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 78.769229, "energy": 58.166365, "activity_lines": [ 13.438667, 13.385818, 13.27881, 13.231742 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 13.65, "volume": 200, "typical_volume": 260.0, "trend": 13.193, "fair_value": 11.976923, "relative_strength": -5.475253, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 82.283548, "energy": 62.203107, "activity_lines": [ 13.51, 13.445091, 13.321048, 13.262753 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 13.56, "volume": 100, "typical_volume": 225.0, "trend": 13.211333, "fair_value": 11.994551, "relative_strength": -6.032878, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.0131, "energy": 53.724659, "activity_lines": [ 13.534667, 13.478182, 13.353381, 13.28643 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 13.6, "volume": 700, "typical_volume": 260.0, "trend": 13.231333, "fair_value": 12.013462, "relative_strength": -5.022191, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 69.522238, "energy": 67.958346, "activity_lines": [ 13.564667, 13.510909, 13.38781, 13.311505 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 13.59, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 260.0, "trend": 13.249333, "fair_value": 12.031859, "relative_strength": -7.75935, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.38284, "energy": 67.128041, "activity_lines": [ 13.592, 13.535091, 13.418143, 13.334645 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }