{ "ticker": { "uuid": "bc3de5cb-a00e-4088-8282-5ca6c30319ba", "symbol": "003006", "name": "Chongqing Baiya Sanitary Products Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -58.302, "architecture_energy": 45.349, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 88.865, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 17.09, "rotation_up": 24.51, "upward_expansion": 6.64, "deceleration": 58.87, "rotation_down": 48.59, "downward_expansion": 77.64 }, "activity_lines": [ 13.999333, 14.132909, 14.995623, 15.834799 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 14.18, "trend_reference": 17.143185, "distance_from_trend": -0.172849, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 20.46371, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.307066, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -32.664886, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.298311, "excess_performance": -0.305711, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.172849, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.112329, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.307066, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.170171, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.326649, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.070962, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.298311, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.434637, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 28214397, "relative_activity": 1.126402, "balance": 0.434637, "dry_up": 1.355561, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.106371, "annualized_volatility": 0.430842, "from_high_reference": -0.552647, "from_low_reference": 0.133493 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 17.143185, "fair_value_reference": 20.46371, "structural_low": 12.51, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": -0.019808, "positive_rate": 0.478261, "directional_follow_through": 0.521739, "median_excess_return": -0.005677, "regime_survival": 0.869565, "best_return": 0.286278, "worst_return": -0.166511, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.033513, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.093459, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.775744, "worst_return": -0.237347, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.028141, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.132787, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 1.112128, "worst_return": -0.272052, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.158404, "energy": 68.859852, "activity_lines": [ 13.903333, 14.561578, 15.57213, 16.517972 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 13.32, "volume": 28955914, "typical_volume": 24304149.7, "trend": 17.574235, "fair_value": 20.467848, "relative_strength": -36.589809, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.045886, "energy": 67.381229, "activity_lines": [ 13.64, 14.246727, 15.287047, 16.22672 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 14.7, "volume": 32391818, "typical_volume": 24576694.4, "trend": 17.380543, "fair_value": 20.468193, "relative_strength": -27.67222, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.154092, "energy": 52.529766, "activity_lines": [ 13.936, 14.230182, 15.157881, 16.041286 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 14.18, "volume": 28214397, "typical_volume": 25048238.35, "trend": 17.143185, "fair_value": 20.46371, "relative_strength": -32.664886, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.302004, "energy": 45.349077, "activity_lines": [ 13.999333, 14.132909, 14.995623, 15.834799 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }