{ "ticker": { "uuid": "bc428948-b559-489d-abe8-d640d7f6df07", "symbol": "FIDU", "name": "FIDELITY COVINGTON TRUST MSCI INDUSTRIALS INDEX", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 86.942, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 63.775, "architecture_energy": 35.173, "architecture_maturity": 36.474, "architecture_confidence": 47.636, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 35.92, "rotation_up": 42.34, "upward_expansion": 70.46, "deceleration": 70.53, "rotation_down": 25.96, "downward_expansion": 8.46 }, "activity_lines": [ 96.814667, 96.791463, 95.60472, 94.300269 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 98.61, "trend_reference": 92.823403, "distance_from_trend": 0.06234, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 73.092122, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.349119, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 0.128914, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.067518, "excess_performance": -0.058107, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.06234, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.053884, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.349119, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.002965, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.001289, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.001866, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.067518, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.816084, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 407603, "relative_activity": 0.813076, "balance": 0.816084, "dry_up": 0.772906, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.035136, "annualized_volatility": 0.145124, "from_high_reference": -0.0139, "from_low_reference": 0.268697 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 92.823403, "fair_value_reference": 73.092122, "structural_low": 83.198355, "invalidation": "A 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91.589177, "fair_value": 72.299791, "relative_strength": 0.92424, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.952825, "energy": 44.891292, "activity_lines": [ 96.757333, 96.155819, 94.514529, 93.356863 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 96.84, "volume": 311943, "typical_volume": 510031.8, "trend": 92.037493, "fair_value": 72.560046, "relative_strength": 2.93776, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 57.956652, "energy": 39.661622, "activity_lines": [ 96.684, 96.426042, 94.907464, 93.695626 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 95.22, "volume": 530676, "typical_volume": 508877.75, "trend": 92.420536, "fair_value": 72.81565, "relative_strength": 0.116987, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 41.488877, "energy": 25.755849, "activity_lines": [ 96.118667, 96.321869, 95.113426, 93.900949 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 98.61, "volume": 407603, "typical_volume": 501309.6, "trend": 92.823403, "fair_value": 73.092122, "relative_strength": 0.128914, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.775404, "energy": 35.17289, "activity_lines": [ 96.814667, 96.791463, 95.60472, 94.300269 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }