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Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 58.89, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 83.975, "architecture_energy": 64.798, "architecture_maturity": 42.795, "architecture_confidence": 60.381, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 14.3, "rotation_up": 63.48, "upward_expansion": 83.74, "deceleration": 68.22, "rotation_down": 21.79, "downward_expansion": 10.41 }, "activity_lines": [ 92.430666, 91.90917, 90.42749, 89.460729 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 94.0, "trend_reference": 88.470616, "distance_from_trend": 0.0625, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 84.135274, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.117248, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -6.424088, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.074441, "excess_performance": -0.04598, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.0625, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.005872, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.117248, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.07153, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.064241, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.075611, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.074441, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.270024, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 23700, "relative_activity": 0.96577, "balance": 0.270024, "dry_up": 0.676447, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.016557, "annualized_volatility": 0.108764, "from_high_reference": -0.004975, "from_low_reference": 0.108665 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 88.470616, "fair_value_reference": 84.135274, "structural_low": 84.78669, 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"modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "up", "direction": 97.43933, "energy": 97.192027, "activity_lines": [ 91.03629, 89.982352, 88.580576, 88.146646 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 92.32, "volume": 4000, "typical_volume": 22125.0, "trend": 87.984009, "fair_value": 83.547548, "relative_strength": -6.902418, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 81.603802, "energy": 92.075913, "activity_lines": [ 91.663457, 90.585283, 89.001979, 88.432299 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 90.730003, "volume": 16500, "typical_volume": 22735.0, "trend": 88.010317, "fair_value": 83.685299, "relative_strength": -7.999455, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.353949, "energy": 84.10562, "activity_lines": [ 91.56183, 90.787802, 89.250981, 88.60946 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 91.519997, "volume": 5400, "typical_volume": 22755.0, "trend": 88.072542, "fair_value": 83.830215, "relative_strength": -7.064193, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.067595, "energy": 80.35572, "activity_lines": [ 91.655334, 91.047917, 89.567752, 88.835891 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 92.029999, "volume": 20800, "typical_volume": 23655.0, "trend": 88.272462, "fair_value": 83.979581, "relative_strength": -5.759305, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.968846, "energy": 59.787177, "activity_lines": [ 91.788, 91.322655, 89.915268, 89.091211 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 94.0, "volume": 23700, "typical_volume": 24540.0, "trend": 88.470616, "fair_value": 84.135274, "relative_strength": -6.424088, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 83.975453, "energy": 64.797796, "activity_lines": [ 92.430666, 91.90917, 90.42749, 89.460729 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }