{ "ticker": { "uuid": "bc511747-c246-421f-a7a4-099cdaf80603", "symbol": "PVE", "name": "Po Valley Energy Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 75.728, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 15.032, "architecture_energy": 22.517, "architecture_maturity": 18.483, "architecture_confidence": 57.836, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 55.1, "rotation_up": 57.59, "upward_expansion": 39.44, "deceleration": 41.97, "rotation_down": 14.57, "downward_expansion": 14.44 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.062667, 0.060818, 0.060671, 0.061439 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.063, "trend_reference": 0.061926, "distance_from_trend": 0.017351, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.046311, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.36038, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 2.78389, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.057012, "excess_performance": -0.006694, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.017351, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.00161, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.36038, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.022017, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.027839, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.09676, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.057012, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.581575, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1755856, "relative_activity": 1.16088, "balance": 1.581575, "dry_up": 0.650945, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.070818, "annualized_volatility": 0.377137, "from_high_reference": -0.16, "from_low_reference": 0.585504 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.061926, "fair_value_reference": 0.046311, "structural_low": 0.052, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.35, "directional_follow_through": 0.35, "median_excess_return": -0.001216, "regime_survival": 0.7, "best_return": 0.354836, "worst_return": -0.139529, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.022566, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.04348, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 1.433341, "worst_return": -0.387756, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.017235, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.052659, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.833328, "worst_return": -0.265311, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"2026-07-10", "close": 0.059, "volume": 1119074, "typical_volume": 2036379.95, "trend": 0.06187, "fair_value": 0.045988, "relative_strength": 1.943556, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.315546, "energy": 49.26891, "activity_lines": [ 0.057533, 0.058127, 0.060359, 0.061198 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.061, "volume": 1497357, "typical_volume": 2073772.7, "trend": 0.061751, "fair_value": 0.045997, "relative_strength": 5.296395, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -41.710309, "energy": 26.370825, "activity_lines": [ 0.0588, 0.0585, 0.060258, 0.061142 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.064, "volume": 281345, "typical_volume": 1922258.5, "trend": 0.061798, "fair_value": 0.046101, "relative_strength": 10.536057, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -12.724737, "energy": 17.40114, "activity_lines": [ 0.060867, 0.059436, 0.060446, 0.061287 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.063, "volume": 403716, "typical_volume": 1691370.95, "trend": 0.061845, "fair_value": 0.046206, "relative_strength": 6.252187, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 3.823978, "energy": 17.391447, "activity_lines": [ 0.062133, 0.060136, 0.060555, 0.061364 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.063, "volume": 1755856, "typical_volume": 1512521.75, "trend": 0.061926, "fair_value": 0.046311, "relative_strength": 2.78389, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 15.032414, "energy": 22.516539, "activity_lines": [ 0.062667, 0.060818, 0.060671, 0.061439 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }