{ "ticker": { "uuid": "bc51714e-cbcc-4153-981c-f521834e1541", "symbol": "SHEKHAWATI", "name": "Shekhawati Industries Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 92.235, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -26.599, "architecture_energy": 43.818, "architecture_maturity": 4.372, "architecture_confidence": 64.059, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 40.46, "rotation_up": 21.4, "upward_expansion": 19.48, "deceleration": 41.51, "rotation_down": 58.93, "downward_expansion": 56.48 }, "activity_lines": [ 12.872667, 13.237091, 13.766238, 13.671699 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 13.7, "trend_reference": 13.764, "distance_from_trend": -0.00465, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 25.172436, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.455754, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -16.956, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.081154, "excess_performance": -0.037444, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.00465, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.123833, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.455754, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.053385, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.16956, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.038998, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.081154, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.626498, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 141389, "relative_activity": 1.044533, "balance": 0.626498, "dry_up": 0.687308, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.113026, "annualized_volatility": 0.634427, "from_high_reference": -0.467961, "from_low_reference": 0.502193 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 13.764, "fair_value_reference": 25.172436, "structural_low": 9.12, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": -0.004681, "positive_rate": 0.44, "directional_follow_through": 0.52, "median_excess_return": -0.000742, "regime_survival": 0.72, "best_return": 0.818182, "worst_return": -0.198435, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.033664, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.3, "median_excess_return": 0.002325, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.909091, "worst_return": -0.378621, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.14936, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.17068, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 4.222222, "worst_return": -0.279221, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-03-15", "end": "2024-04-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.529412, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-04-19", "end": "2024-09-27", "tenure": "Established", "return": 1.274, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2024-12-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.369194, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.150705, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.157771, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.141787, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.128205, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2026-05-08", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.305278, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-15", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.168079, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.090764, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 4.5, "volume": 57918, "typical_volume": 12364.5, "trend": 5.416667, "fair_value": 6.115385, "relative_strength": -31.801569, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early 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11.78, "volume": 78081, "typical_volume": 145683.95, "trend": 14.118667, "fair_value": 25.05859, "relative_strength": -27.710875, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.800483, "energy": 52.988938, "activity_lines": [ 12.878, 13.482, 13.85919, 13.786064 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12.56, "volume": 95947, "typical_volume": 133963.45, "trend": 13.914, "fair_value": 25.113461, "relative_strength": -24.00369, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.948373, "energy": 55.803789, "activity_lines": [ 12.647333, 13.241636, 13.758714, 13.685505 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 13.7, "volume": 141389, "typical_volume": 135361.0, "trend": 13.764, "fair_value": 25.172436, "relative_strength": -16.956, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -26.59939, "energy": 43.818452, "activity_lines": [ 12.872667, 13.237091, 13.766238, 13.671699 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }