{ "ticker": { "uuid": "bc53cbe6-c2b4-459b-93d5-e9d2aa7b1227", "symbol": "7779", "name": "CARRY", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 62.021, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -6.124, "architecture_energy": 12.07, "architecture_maturity": 87.26, "architecture_confidence": 43.357, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 55.66, "rotation_up": 35.3, "upward_expansion": 19.13, "deceleration": 43.92, "rotation_down": 22.38, "downward_expansion": 57.8 }, "activity_lines": [ 13.403333, 13.094545, 13.224286, 13.410753 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 14.45, "trend_reference": 13.763333, "distance_from_trend": 0.049891, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 26.132812, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.447055, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -38.527994, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.036667, "excess_performance": -0.478039, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.049891, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.105599, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.447055, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.033519, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.38528, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.149567, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.036667, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.262141, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 137293, "relative_activity": 2.189662, "balance": 1.262141, "dry_up": 1.201724, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.066276, "annualized_volatility": 0.465461, "from_high_reference": -0.460821, "from_low_reference": 0.19917 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 13.763333, "fair_value_reference": 26.132812, "structural_low": 12.05, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.01185, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.020675, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.165323, "worst_return": -0.20625, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.196875, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.318173, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": -0.196875, "worst_return": -0.196875, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-08-14", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.096875, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-10-04", "close": 57.200001, "volume": 811390, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-10-11", "close": 50.400002, "volume": 1001678, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, 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"activity_lines": [ 12.616667, 12.702727, 13.128095, 13.407097 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 13.3, "volume": 84002, "typical_volume": 61994.6, "trend": 13.791667, "fair_value": 26.255789, "relative_strength": -43.098921, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -42.158617, "energy": 26.907867, "activity_lines": [ 12.823333, 12.805455, 13.122381, 13.36828 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 14.45, "volume": 137293, "typical_volume": 62700.55, "trend": 13.763333, "fair_value": 26.132812, "relative_strength": -38.527994, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -6.123999, "energy": 12.069587, "activity_lines": [ 13.403333, 13.094545, 13.224286, 13.410753 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }