{ "ticker": { "uuid": "bc609323-24d5-474b-9d6d-20466f94766c", "symbol": "IVV", "name": "iShares Core S&P 500 ETF", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 78.704, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 69.292, "architecture_energy": 45.099, "architecture_maturity": 50.187, "architecture_confidence": 75.306, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 28.19, "rotation_up": 43.24, "upward_expansion": 73.49, "deceleration": 91.03, "rotation_down": 28.75, "downward_expansion": 11.49 }, "activity_lines": [ 13133.351367, 13120.982031, 12989.033454, 12754.957476 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 13303.910156, "trend_reference": 12475.965853, "distance_from_trend": 0.066363, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 10832.008188, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.228203, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 4.887393, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.115332, "excess_performance": 0.169999, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.066363, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.018941, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.228203, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.001775, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.048874, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.097613, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.115332, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.334849, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 18277, "relative_activity": 0.18304, "balance": 0.334849, "dry_up": 2.102195, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.022196, "annualized_volatility": 0.126259, "from_high_reference": -0.008724, "from_low_reference": 0.152181 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 12475.965853, "fair_value_reference": 10832.008188, "structural_low": 11546.719727, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.028732, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.008364, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.126081, "worst_return": -0.037757, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.099394, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.056064, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.163771, "worst_return": -0.069441, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.164771, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.14729, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.317378, "worst_return": 0.012163, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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13303.910156, "volume": 18277, "typical_volume": 99852.3, "trend": 12475.965853, "fair_value": 10832.008188, "relative_strength": 4.887393, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 69.292461, "energy": 45.098631, "activity_lines": [ 13133.351367, 13120.982031, 12989.033454, 12754.957476 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }