{ "ticker": { "uuid": "bc656b69-df82-4a26-afdf-c61d6f81a771", "symbol": "PTON", "name": "Peloton Interactive, Inc.", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 78.02, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 59.281, "architecture_energy": 43.355, "architecture_maturity": 37.643, "architecture_confidence": 64.453, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 19.59, "rotation_up": 53.14, "upward_expansion": 81.76, "deceleration": 63.53, "rotation_down": 24.39, "downward_expansion": 6.09 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.243333, 5.210182, 5.053767, 4.779654 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 4.91, "trend_reference": 4.532783, "distance_from_trend": 0.08322, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5.317484, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.076631, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -25.61851, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.254792, "excess_performance": 0.080545, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.08322, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.037779, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.076631, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.055056, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.256185, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.015695, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.254792, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.907417, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2009, "relative_activity": 4.021619, "balance": 0.907417, "dry_up": 1.005405, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.0846, "annualized_volatility": 0.400627, "from_high_reference": -0.37856, "from_low_reference": 0.539185 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.532783, "fair_value_reference": 5.317484, "structural_low": 3.19, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.078878, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.086834, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.630715, "worst_return": -0.214441, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.366981, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.447757, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 1.100352, "worst_return": -0.572939, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.484833, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.431739, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.074795, "worst_return": -0.518181, "sufficient": false }, { 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4.481599 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 5.1, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 440.65, "trend": 4.586617, "fair_value": 5.416612, "relative_strength": -23.802785, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 38.109204, "energy": 40.041416, "activity_lines": [ 5.054667, 4.981091, 4.616445, 4.513013 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 5.16, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 440.65, "trend": 4.570217, "fair_value": 5.401894, "relative_strength": -24.091975, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 40.409485, "energy": 40.346855, "activity_lines": [ 5.077333, 5.030545, 4.701076, 4.550005 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 5.18, "volume": 1823, "typical_volume": 447.8, "trend": 4.549583, "fair_value": 5.384253, "relative_strength": -22.204836, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.242337, "energy": 60.717045, "activity_lines": [ 5.118667, 5.071455, 4.780231, 4.589346 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 5.36, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 447.8, "trend": 4.54915, "fair_value": 5.364798, "relative_strength": -17.409678, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 72.394851, "energy": 63.978146, "activity_lines": [ 5.218667, 5.137091, 4.869614, 4.641631 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.4, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 432.5, "trend": 4.555017, "fair_value": 5.348369, "relative_strength": -17.375266, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 71.281861, "energy": 62.678236, "activity_lines": [ 5.293333, 5.199636, 4.953502, 4.696525 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.5, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 432.5, "trend": 4.566483, "fair_value": 5.331151, "relative_strength": -15.19732, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 72.232967, "energy": 61.441771, "activity_lines": [ 5.38, 5.264, 5.037071, 4.757491 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.91, "volume": 2009, "typical_volume": 499.55, "trend": 4.532783, "fair_value": 5.317484, "relative_strength": -25.61851, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 59.280965, "energy": 43.355009, "activity_lines": [ 5.243333, 5.210182, 5.053767, 4.779654 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }