{ "ticker": { "uuid": "bc7112bc-0fab-463d-8a4f-1cde89815b66", "symbol": "OTOVO", "name": "Otovo ASA", "exchange": "OSL", "country": "NO", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "OSEBX.OL", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 51.357, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -11.698, "architecture_energy": 7.831, "architecture_maturity": 17.142, "architecture_confidence": 59.331, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 61.34, "rotation_up": 28.62, "upward_expansion": 29.35, "deceleration": 38.88, "rotation_down": 26.04, "downward_expansion": 46.68 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.36, 11.263818, 11.046143, 11.285458 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 11.4, "trend_reference": 11.981467, "distance_from_trend": -0.048531, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 19.13021, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.404084, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -9.144224, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.249309, "excess_performance": -0.374302, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.048531, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.068076, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.404084, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.189547, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.091442, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.151788, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.249309, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.133668, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 234366, "relative_activity": 0.385692, "balance": 0.133668, "dry_up": 0.385049, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.111269, "annualized_volatility": 0.547545, "from_high_reference": -0.359551, "from_low_reference": 0.896839 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.981467, "fair_value_reference": 19.13021, "structural_low": 9.0, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.084967, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.102365, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.02, "worst_return": -0.204969, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.44, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.425512, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.15207, "worst_return": -0.455455, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.475475, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.514504, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.0124, "worst_return": -0.488453, "sufficient": false }, { 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"fair_value": 22.827577, "relative_strength": -1.699317, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -20.511829, "energy": 18.705039, "activity_lines": [ 10.832667, 10.633455, 10.996057, 11.489467 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 11.4, "volume": 6572861, "typical_volume": 1192441.75, "trend": 11.742467, "fair_value": 22.142491, "relative_strength": -11.422904, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -30.791001, "energy": 19.856882, "activity_lines": [ 11.124, 10.767091, 10.991733, 11.476899 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 11.4, "volume": 304898, "typical_volume": 1202882.5, "trend": 11.8398, "fair_value": 21.523666, "relative_strength": -9.553699, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -24.186817, "energy": 24.327634, "activity_lines": [ 11.362, 10.897091, 10.99979, 11.454804 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 10.55, "volume": 76182, "typical_volume": 1202688.85, "trend": 11.896133, "fair_value": 20.91723, "relative_strength": -16.173274, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -31.287942, "energy": 25.472689, "activity_lines": [ 11.203333, 10.864364, 10.9388, 11.371591 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 11.5, "volume": 342550, "typical_volume": 622396.75, "trend": 11.956133, "fair_value": 20.296497, "relative_strength": -9.667208, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -11.889113, "energy": 10.852, "activity_lines": [ 11.283333, 11.014364, 10.97519, 11.346034 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 11.6, "volume": 282804, "typical_volume": 612181.8, "trend": 11.9828, "fair_value": 19.690421, "relative_strength": -8.218683, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -7.484461, "energy": 7.680887, "activity_lines": [ 11.323333, 11.174364, 11.020429, 11.323058 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11.4, "volume": 234366, "typical_volume": 607650.95, "trend": 11.981467, "fair_value": 19.13021, "relative_strength": -9.144224, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -11.69797, "energy": 7.830753, "activity_lines": [ 11.36, 11.263818, 11.046143, 11.285458 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }