{ "ticker": { "uuid": "bc716e2d-687a-4596-a648-2d37f16d5378", "symbol": "688598", "name": "KBC Corporation, Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 54.041, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -6.57, "architecture_energy": 28.837, "architecture_maturity": 60.884, "architecture_confidence": 75.063, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 46.26, "rotation_up": 14.7, "upward_expansion": 24.38, "deceleration": 76.16, "rotation_down": 63.37, "downward_expansion": 35.05 }, "activity_lines": [ 29.329334, 35.590727, 35.060619, 32.999118 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 30.35, "trend_reference": 31.082, "distance_from_trend": -0.023551, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 31.440321, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.034679, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -1.871922, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.069415, "excess_performance": 0.112619, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.023551, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.102876, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.034679, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.235051, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.018719, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.163052, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.069415, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.888221, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 69613890, "relative_activity": 1.499355, "balance": 0.888221, "dry_up": 1.477139, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.277759, "annualized_volatility": 1.162477, "from_high_reference": -0.49205, "from_low_reference": 0.438389 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 31.082, "fair_value_reference": 31.440321, "structural_low": 21.1, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.051272, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": -0.047198, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.2643, "worst_return": -0.177361, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.099905, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.141161, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.302242, "worst_return": -0.27788, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.203616, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.26055, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.109866, "worst_return": -0.431304, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.017592, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.215805, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.025954, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.101491, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.065355, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.101445, 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36.409571, 33.722065 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 26.67, "volume": 81317755, "typical_volume": 42317034.5, "trend": 31.205667, "fair_value": 32.063993, "relative_strength": -11.097217, "stage": 4, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 13.996514, "energy": 18.068102, "activity_lines": [ 35.986667, 39.686909, 35.887524, 33.425871 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 25.290001, "volume": 55275836, "typical_volume": 44061697.45, "trend": 31.049, "fair_value": 31.741984, "relative_strength": -15.903931, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -16.879132, "energy": 30.428872, "activity_lines": [ 30.966667, 37.094, 35.22981, 33.044215 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 30.35, "volume": 69613890, "typical_volume": 46429238.3, "trend": 31.082, "fair_value": 31.440321, "relative_strength": -1.871922, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -6.569913, "energy": 28.836853, "activity_lines": [ 29.329334, 35.590727, 35.060619, 32.999118 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }