{ "ticker": { "uuid": "bc7190e4-226a-42dd-8a5b-c9566887aa39", "symbol": "300898", "name": "Panda Dairy Corporation", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -45.758, "architecture_energy": 34.305, "architecture_maturity": 98.19, "architecture_confidence": 88.075, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 24.14, "rotation_up": 26.44, "upward_expansion": 16.66, "deceleration": 46.98, "rotation_down": 38.96, "downward_expansion": 66.66 }, "activity_lines": [ 19.639334, 19.459637, 20.375127, 21.368305 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 20.440001, "trend_reference": 22.967236, "distance_from_trend": -0.110037, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 22.909025, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.107775, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -20.145528, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.264304, "excess_performance": -0.271704, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.110037, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.095084, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.107775, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.161969, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.201455, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.059222, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.264304, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.767583, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 20382061, "relative_activity": 1.436169, "balance": 0.767583, "dry_up": 1.613172, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.082747, "annualized_volatility": 0.357218, "from_high_reference": -0.322647, "from_low_reference": 0.154802 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 22.967236, "fair_value_reference": 22.909025, "structural_low": 17.700001, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": -0.02572, "positive_rate": 0.478261, "directional_follow_through": 0.521739, "median_excess_return": -0.01443, "regime_survival": 0.826087, "best_return": 0.566519, "worst_return": -0.108666, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.00825, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.028092, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.316657, "worst_return": -0.142855, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.043018, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.058079, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.369048, "worst_return": -0.187131, "sufficient": true }, { 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"Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.119062, "energy": 62.124696, "activity_lines": [ 19.266667, 19.74864, 20.989433, 22.141845 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 17.790001, "volume": 17867153, "typical_volume": 12482508.65, "trend": 23.399048, "fair_value": 22.958594, "relative_strength": -29.277088, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.580517, "energy": 65.698774, "activity_lines": [ 18.794667, 19.277689, 20.597011, 21.756576 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 20.1, "volume": 37942077, "typical_volume": 13739832.4, "trend": 23.159154, "fair_value": 22.954346, "relative_strength": -18.145577, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.386463, "energy": 47.741248, "activity_lines": [ 19.208, 19.319818, 20.459669, 21.543735 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 20.440001, "volume": 20382061, "typical_volume": 14191962.9, "trend": 22.967236, "fair_value": 22.909025, "relative_strength": -20.145528, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.757999, "energy": 34.304715, "activity_lines": [ 19.639334, 19.459637, 20.375127, 21.368305 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }