{ "ticker": { "uuid": "bc80e96b-c779-4be2-b096-dbb76608b6ac", "symbol": "FVRR", "name": "Fiverr International Ltd", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -60.58, "architecture_energy": 50.367, "architecture_maturity": 22.489, "architecture_confidence": 89.181, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 39.33, "rotation_up": 16.08, "upward_expansion": 11.03, "deceleration": 38.93, "rotation_down": 59.54, "downward_expansion": 79.7 }, "activity_lines": [ 9.845333, 10.234545, 10.485476, 10.710753 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 9.42, "trend_reference": 11.503333, "distance_from_trend": -0.181107, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 22.802628, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.58689, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -48.220227, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.390686, "excess_performance": -0.516311, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.181107, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.224582, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.58689, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.058678, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.482202, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.02957, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.390686, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.727379, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4341693, "relative_activity": 1.050201, "balance": 0.727379, "dry_up": 1.119411, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.133589, "annualized_volatility": 0.535619, "from_high_reference": -0.663571, "from_low_reference": 0.076571 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.503333, "fair_value_reference": 22.802628, "structural_low": 8.75, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": -0.016219, "positive_rate": 0.4375, "directional_follow_through": 0.4375, "median_excess_return": -0.026104, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.431565, "worst_return": -0.280394, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.088523, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": 0.02956, "regime_survival": 0.125, "best_return": 0.390994, "worst_return": -0.255155, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.111871, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.228646, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.351154, "worst_return": -0.527687, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.192853, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.339054, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.207728, "worst_return": -0.75169, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-03-22", "end": "2024-05-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.166436, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-06-07", "end": "2024-06-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.103954, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-06-28", "end": "2024-08-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.06146, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-09-06", "end": "2024-10-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.072524, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-10-25", "end": "2024-10-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2024-11-08", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.017224, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.134094, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.249338, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.024181, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.307755, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.151659, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.111073, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2026-07-10", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.571595, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-17", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.160428, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 28.1, "volume": 2407799, "typical_volume": 3915418.1, "trend": 32.279, "fair_value": 110.516923, "relative_strength": -19.694867, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", 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18.153603, "activity_lines": [ 10.836667, 10.722364, 10.741381, 11.299849 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 11.22, "volume": 2810239, "typical_volume": 4061504.9, "trend": 12.462333, "fair_value": 23.19891, "relative_strength": -39.450257, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -17.845647, "energy": 11.185289, "activity_lines": [ 11.022, 10.808909, 10.790381, 11.200989 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 10.46, "volume": 3285445, "typical_volume": 3947487.7, "trend": 12.152333, "fair_value": 23.079615, "relative_strength": -42.022682, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -34.559646, "energy": 14.974929, "activity_lines": [ 10.87, 10.761455, 10.765143, 11.071806 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.93, "volume": 8073895, "typical_volume": 4131865.05, "trend": 11.794, "fair_value": 22.932628, "relative_strength": -50.098348, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.077899, "energy": 36.216877, "activity_lines": [ 10.202667, 10.433818, 10.598333, 10.863914 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 9.42, "volume": 4341693, "typical_volume": 4134155.35, "trend": 11.503333, "fair_value": 22.802628, "relative_strength": -48.220227, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.579777, "energy": 50.36737, "activity_lines": [ 9.845333, 10.234545, 10.485476, 10.710753 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }