{ "ticker": { "uuid": "bc824d92-29ba-48e6-884d-9b8cad5a3b57", "symbol": "GLR", "name": "Galileo Resources Plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.596, "architecture_energy": 67.857, "architecture_maturity": 24.658, "architecture_confidence": 85.242, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 19.07, "rotation_up": 9.08, "upward_expansion": 14.37, "deceleration": 37.28, "rotation_down": 71.63, "downward_expansion": 87.7 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.006283, 0.006918, 0.007306, 0.00751 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.006, "trend_reference": 0.007825, "distance_from_trend": -0.233227, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.00941, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.362398, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -31.943827, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.368421, "excess_performance": -0.419656, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.233227, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.034943, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.362398, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.161737, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.319438, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.178459, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.368421, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.36873, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6885886, "relative_activity": 0.559232, "balance": 0.36873, "dry_up": 1.80373, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.22359, "annualized_volatility": 0.680048, "from_high_reference": -0.5, "from_low_reference": 0.22449 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.007825, "fair_value_reference": 0.00941, "structural_low": 0.0049, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 29, "median_return": 0.022727, "positive_rate": 0.586207, "directional_follow_through": 0.344828, "median_excess_return": 0.007084, "regime_survival": 0.724138, "best_return": 0.459459, "worst_return": -0.25, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.033333, "positive_rate": 0.636364, "directional_follow_through": 0.181818, "median_excess_return": 0.011744, "regime_survival": 0.363636, "best_return": 0.72973, "worst_return": -0.22449, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.028571, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.014009, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.432432, "worst_return": -0.22449, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.052962, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.084717, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.108108, "worst_return": -0.265306, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-09-15", "end": "2023-09-22", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.042553, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-09-29", "end": "2023-10-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.119048, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-10-27", "end": "2023-11-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.371429, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-11-24", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.251064, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.057143, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.055556, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.076087, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.088235, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.2, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.111111, "active": false 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"energy": 8.249715, "activity_lines": [ 0.008067, 0.008009, 0.007908, 0.007991 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.006, "volume": 56835191, "typical_volume": 12701245.45, "trend": 0.0081, "fair_value": 0.009498, "relative_strength": -31.753663, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.330645, "energy": 38.282319, "activity_lines": [ 0.007367, 0.007668, 0.00773, 0.007852 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.00675, "volume": 17495689, "typical_volume": 13130781.8, "trend": 0.008017, "fair_value": 0.009474, "relative_strength": -23.559304, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.531232, "energy": 45.421608, "activity_lines": [ 0.00705, 0.007495, 0.007631, 0.007765 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.006, "volume": 7621328, "typical_volume": 12910984.8, "trend": 0.007925, "fair_value": 0.009446, "relative_strength": -32.267276, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.665507, "energy": 61.507618, "activity_lines": [ 0.0066, 0.007195, 0.007464, 0.007634 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.006, "volume": 6885886, "typical_volume": 12313109.15, "trend": 0.007825, "fair_value": 0.00941, "relative_strength": -31.943827, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.59642, "energy": 67.856533, "activity_lines": [ 0.006283, 0.006918, 0.007306, 0.00751 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }