{ "ticker": { "uuid": "bc85b5ce-9c56-4d10-ba86-1a8386aad0f1", "symbol": "SLYG", "name": "STATE STREET SPDR S&P 600 SMALL CAP GROWTH ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 73.093, "architecture_energy": 56.129, "architecture_maturity": 82.79, "architecture_confidence": 61.305, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 12.77, "rotation_up": 49.13, "upward_expansion": 75.83, "deceleration": 71.08, "rotation_down": 28.4, "downward_expansion": 13.83 }, "activity_lines": [ 116.082, 115.811202, 112.986001, 109.873676 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 118.08, "trend_reference": 106.264218, "distance_from_trend": 0.111192, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 89.762744, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.315468, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 4.353488, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.157668, "excess_performance": 0.032043, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.111192, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.066681, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.315468, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.054865, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.043535, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.018887, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.157668, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.194066, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 942126, "relative_activity": 1.308418, "balance": 1.194066, "dry_up": 0.834978, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.030731, "annualized_volatility": 0.159656, "from_high_reference": -0.014686, "from_low_reference": 0.335864 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 106.264218, "fair_value_reference": 89.762744, "structural_low": 93.08, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 30, "median_return": 0.005277, "positive_rate": 0.533333, "directional_follow_through": 0.533333, "median_excess_return": -0.011739, "regime_survival": 0.733333, "best_return": 0.074225, "worst_return": -0.065483, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.023547, "positive_rate": 0.272727, "directional_follow_through": 0.272727, "median_excess_return": -0.038071, "regime_survival": 0.454545, "best_return": 0.090214, "worst_return": -0.136061, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.063344, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.055095, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.085682, "worst_return": -0.094698, "sufficient": true }, 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"stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.632631, "energy": 86.278674, "activity_lines": [ 116.295785, 113.655976, 109.743819, 107.013575 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 115.28, "volume": 553900, "typical_volume": 735058.25, "trend": 104.352681, "fair_value": 89.013572, "relative_strength": 6.489419, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.297105, "energy": 83.579577, "activity_lines": [ 116.197425, 114.310085, 110.625515, 107.759664 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 114.36, "volume": 461315, "typical_volume": 719556.2, "trend": 104.934757, "fair_value": 89.248282, "relative_strength": 6.098075, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.338192, "energy": 60.761149, "activity_lines": [ 115.615333, 114.683852, 111.353494, 108.405298 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 115.22, "volume": 447563, "typical_volume": 708780.45, "trend": 105.605387, "fair_value": 89.492737, "relative_strength": 5.56399, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.861501, "energy": 53.456379, "activity_lines": [ 115.292, 115.054313, 112.081459, 109.068862 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 118.08, "volume": 942126, "typical_volume": 720049.75, "trend": 106.264218, "fair_value": 89.762744, "relative_strength": 4.353488, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 73.093202, "energy": 56.129245, "activity_lines": [ 116.082, 115.811202, 112.986001, 109.873676 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }