{ "ticker": { "uuid": "bc8a4d35-c0f1-429e-aa1a-28600662aca4", "symbol": "BLOV", "name": "Brompton North American Low Volatility Dividend ETF", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 61.07, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 49.5, "architecture_energy": 38.413, "architecture_maturity": 59.739, "architecture_confidence": 75.847, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 31.3, "rotation_up": 35.9, "upward_expansion": 65.98, "deceleration": 88.31, "rotation_down": 27.77, "downward_expansion": 18.31 }, "activity_lines": [ 27.230114, 27.277529, 27.103472, 26.831318 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 27.33, "trend_reference": 26.425174, "distance_from_trend": 0.034241, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 22.374097, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.221502, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -4.036574, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.054208, "excess_performance": -0.066213, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.034241, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.03945, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.221502, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.006742, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.040366, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.004376, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.054208, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.95, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 0.95, "dry_up": 0.331325, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.011404, "annualized_volatility": 0.09657, "from_high_reference": -0.016306, "from_low_reference": 0.177126 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 26.425174, "fair_value_reference": 22.374097, "structural_low": 25.293963, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.023134, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.013472, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.062438, "worst_return": -0.021984, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.03384, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.00238, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.081576, "worst_return": 0.016909, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.042719, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.008383, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.118177, "worst_return": -0.018021, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 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"start": "2024-06-21", "end": "2024-06-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0074, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-07-05", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.021331, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.036457, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.003856, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.09163, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.012097, "active": false }, { "regime": 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"energy": 78.175132, "activity_lines": [ 27.405093, 27.254889, 26.884472, 26.563969 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 27.354513, "volume": 900, "typical_volume": 1425.0, "trend": 26.139733, "fair_value": 22.219369, "relative_strength": -1.529292, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.688153, "energy": 65.12057, "activity_lines": [ 27.405862, 27.298363, 26.958924, 26.649294 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 26.935974, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 1090.0, "trend": 26.227335, "fair_value": 22.267092, "relative_strength": -3.125439, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.536921, "energy": 54.636629, "activity_lines": [ 27.253917, 27.247764, 26.989975, 26.700665 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 27.25, "volume": 200, "typical_volume": 970.0, "trend": 26.327545, "fair_value": 22.320621, "relative_strength": -1.387188, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.42556, "energy": 39.235686, "activity_lines": [ 27.227331, 27.256002, 27.045991, 26.766643 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 27.33, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 830.0, "trend": 26.425174, "fair_value": 22.374097, "relative_strength": -4.036574, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 49.500089, "energy": 38.412889, "activity_lines": [ 27.230114, 27.277529, 27.103472, 26.831318 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }