{ "ticker": { "uuid": "bc9100d0-d4c8-41ed-a1fc-9e08c2633bc8", "symbol": "LUXE", "name": "LuxExperience B.V.", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 81.34, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -9.207, "architecture_energy": 11.148, "architecture_maturity": 16.414, "architecture_confidence": 65.788, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 60.09, "rotation_up": 35.13, "upward_expansion": 33.75, "deceleration": 40.32, "rotation_down": 19.75, "downward_expansion": 39.75 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.084667, 7.967636, 7.894048, 8.021634 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 8.1, "trend_reference": 8.190333, "distance_from_trend": -0.011029, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 6.534487, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.239577, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -14.99037, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.090175, "excess_performance": -0.03545, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.011029, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.04393, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.239577, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.121865, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.149904, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.021433, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.090175, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.482061, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 764692, "relative_activity": 0.760017, "balance": 0.482061, "dry_up": 0.618369, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.102587, "annualized_volatility": 0.651661, "from_high_reference": -0.288225, "from_low_reference": 0.238532 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8.190333, "fair_value_reference": 6.534487, "structural_low": 6.54, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": -0.047185, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.079985, "regime_survival": 0.5625, "best_return": 0.246575, "worst_return": -0.166667, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.030809, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.030822, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.319149, "worst_return": -0.145281, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.03546, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.110436, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.397183, "worst_return": -0.092052, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.204403, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.462647, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 1.008451, "worst_return": -0.69659, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-08-16", "end": "2024-09-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.029024, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-09-13", "end": "2024-10-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 1.043702, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-18", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.069482, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.036145, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.006289, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.09071, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.116456, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.084416, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.028708, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.095006, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.144624, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-05-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.136139, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-05-29", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.156472, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0125, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 3.36, "volume": 315576, "typical_volume": 559048.55, "trend": 5.784333, "fair_value": 16.272331, "relative_strength": -61.725195, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": 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"volume": 536457, "typical_volume": 1137164.1, "trend": 8.247333, "fair_value": 6.425641, "relative_strength": -15.914711, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -32.054899, "energy": 18.461264, "activity_lines": [ 7.804, 7.623091, 7.855143, 8.052839 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 8.13, "volume": 459258, "typical_volume": 1079041.35, "trend": 8.218, "fair_value": 6.453269, "relative_strength": -12.049609, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -25.274948, "energy": 16.038137, "activity_lines": [ 7.952667, 7.72, 7.860429, 8.045269 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 8.0, "volume": 922026, "typical_volume": 1069364.55, "trend": 8.202667, "fair_value": 6.478974, "relative_strength": -12.6435, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -24.023159, "energy": 16.721306, "activity_lines": [ 7.987333, 7.799455, 7.860667, 8.031204 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.15, "volume": 342713, "typical_volume": 1029036.7, "trend": 8.195667, "fair_value": 6.506731, "relative_strength": -11.776563, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -9.58245, "energy": 10.938695, "activity_lines": [ 8.066, 7.898727, 7.879905, 8.027806 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.1, "volume": 764692, "typical_volume": 1006151.25, "trend": 8.190333, "fair_value": 6.534487, "relative_strength": -14.99037, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -9.206781, "energy": 11.14847, "activity_lines": [ 8.084667, 7.967636, 7.894048, 8.021634 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }