{ "ticker": { "uuid": "bc9119a7-2acc-42ce-839f-eddfcd06579e", "symbol": "KJ7", "name": "Xtrackers MSCI Indonesia Swap UCITS ETF 1C", "exchange": "SES", "country": "SG", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^STI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -42.029, "architecture_energy": 33.548, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 81.812, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 33.97, "rotation_up": 27.96, "upward_expansion": 23.97, "deceleration": 46.94, "rotation_down": 27.9, "downward_expansion": 60.31 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.895333, 8.742, 9.004095, 9.581032 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 9.05, "trend_reference": 10.518333, "distance_from_trend": -0.139598, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 13.87614, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.347801, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -36.342834, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.291308, "excess_performance": -0.446143, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.139598, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.138218, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.347801, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.082058, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.363428, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.099266, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.291308, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.040218, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 840, "relative_activity": 0.113122, "balance": 0.040218, "dry_up": 0.141975, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.056354, "annualized_volatility": 0.373693, "from_high_reference": -0.396264, "from_low_reference": 0.13125 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 10.518333, "fair_value_reference": 13.87614, "structural_low": 8.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": 0.013265, "positive_rate": 0.529412, "directional_follow_through": 0.470588, "median_excess_return": 0.016582, "regime_survival": 0.823529, "best_return": 0.195455, "worst_return": -0.158915, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.054775, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.10222, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.148206, "worst_return": -0.30155, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.099017, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.042144, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.162246, "worst_return": -0.033333, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.010145, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.189193, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.106084, "worst_return": -0.030899, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2022-12-23", "end": "2023-01-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.024707, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2023-01-13", "end": "2023-01-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.036424, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-02-03", "end": "2023-04-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-09-13", "end": "2024-10-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.010753, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2024-11-22", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.061635, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2024-12-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.020667, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.02971, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.053483, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.079126, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "New", 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"relative_strength": -37.877452, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.630753, "energy": 52.14545, "activity_lines": [ 8.704667, 8.643091, 9.14381, 9.820839 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.75, "volume": 745, "typical_volume": 8447.3, "trend": 10.674667, "fair_value": 13.918448, "relative_strength": -38.436718, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.133103, "energy": 42.932708, "activity_lines": [ 8.763333, 8.662909, 9.05381, 9.685849 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 9.05, "volume": 840, "typical_volume": 7425.6, "trend": 10.518333, "fair_value": 13.87614, "relative_strength": -36.342834, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -42.028757, "energy": 33.547857, "activity_lines": [ 8.895333, 8.742, 9.004095, 9.581032 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }