{ "ticker": { "uuid": "bc951cdb-a130-4357-a770-17a1168b31d1", "symbol": "SJB", "name": "PROSHARES TRUST SHORT HIGH YIELD", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 60.228, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -28.12, "architecture_energy": 17.913, "architecture_maturity": 52.747, "architecture_confidence": 65.107, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 45.55, "rotation_up": 30.88, "upward_expansion": 25.27, "deceleration": 48.33, "rotation_down": 30.41, "downward_expansion": 51.94 }, "activity_lines": [ 15.204067, 15.185624, 15.183425, 15.223038 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 15.145, "trend_reference": 15.252658, "distance_from_trend": -0.007058, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 15.536311, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.025187, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -11.616747, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.005404, "excess_performance": -0.131029, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.007058, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.001775, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.025187, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.007583, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.116167, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.007158, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.005404, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.606301, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 295547, "relative_activity": 0.229124, "balance": 0.606301, "dry_up": 0.387208, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.007368, "annualized_volatility": 0.04437, "from_high_reference": -0.035964, "from_low_reference": 0.006312 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 15.252658, "fair_value_reference": 15.536311, "structural_low": 15.05, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 26, "median_return": 0.000846, "positive_rate": 0.576923, "directional_follow_through": 0.423077, "median_excess_return": -0.016345, "regime_survival": 0.769231, "best_return": 0.025744, "worst_return": -0.030078, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.001492, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.054831, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.048241, "worst_return": -0.012387, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.002548, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.137653, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.094779, "worst_return": -0.017053, 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"typical_volume": 1519263.55, "trend": 15.254346, "fair_value": 15.549627, "relative_strength": -7.179857, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -14.673155, "energy": 11.236764, "activity_lines": [ 15.205667, 15.179729, 15.195674, 15.23171 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 15.229, "volume": 654939, "typical_volume": 1382727.45, "trend": 15.254071, "fair_value": 15.543238, "relative_strength": -8.377432, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -26.620444, "energy": 18.008983, "activity_lines": [ 15.221, 15.190675, 15.192793, 15.230075 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 15.145, "volume": 295547, "typical_volume": 1289897.9, "trend": 15.252658, "fair_value": 15.536311, "relative_strength": -11.616747, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -28.120468, "energy": 17.912764, "activity_lines": [ 15.204067, 15.185624, 15.183425, 15.223038 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }