{ "ticker": { "uuid": "bc9b8cff-00d5-4973-b922-13a5e5633fdc", "symbol": "MOBA", "name": "M.O.B.A. Network AB", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 0.333, "architecture_energy": 9.41, "architecture_maturity": 18.065, "architecture_confidence": 56.641, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 70.66, "rotation_up": 16.21, "upward_expansion": 40.3, "deceleration": 85.55, "rotation_down": 34.24, "downward_expansion": 31.96 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.131, 1.209582, 1.210986, 1.16943 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 1.025, "trend_reference": 1.015667, "distance_from_trend": 0.009189, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 7.446904, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.862359, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -55.217439, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 4.203046, "excess_performance": 4.141551, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.009189, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.157455, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.862359, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.019125, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.552174, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.171337, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 4.203046, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.320917, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 104049, "relative_activity": 0.28199, "balance": 0.320917, "dry_up": 0.420277, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.236998, "annualized_volatility": 2.294841, "from_high_reference": -0.834677, "from_low_reference": 5.833333 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.015667, "fair_value_reference": 7.446904, "structural_low": 0.194, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.466667, "directional_follow_through": 0.466667, "median_excess_return": -0.010434, "regime_survival": 0.533333, "best_return": 0.237537, "worst_return": -0.201219, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.153172, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.130954, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.531496, "worst_return": -0.255981, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.242099, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": -0.211097, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.314961, "worst_return": -0.391176, "sufficient": true 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"regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-04-19", "end": "2024-04-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.07438, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-05-03", "end": "2024-05-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-06-07", "end": "2024-10-18", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.172727, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-10-25", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.096257, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.121019, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "Extended", 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"gate": "up", "direction": 41.387891, "energy": 45.91123, "activity_lines": [ 1.336667, 1.226036, 1.242676, 1.115824 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.26, "volume": 56369, "typical_volume": 459362.4, "trend": 0.926267, "fair_value": 7.794724, "relative_strength": -50.210456, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 48.009674, "energy": 29.404557, "activity_lines": [ 1.290667, 1.249127, 1.2482, 1.139518 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.2, "volume": 62994, "typical_volume": 425443.15, "trend": 0.9598, "fair_value": 7.693122, "relative_strength": -50.872772, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 34.660441, "energy": 18.629013, "activity_lines": [ 1.251667, 1.257309, 1.245557, 1.157178 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.115, "volume": 396886, "typical_volume": 406625.55, "trend": 0.9903, "fair_value": 7.581359, "relative_strength": -52.846956, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 23.215715, "energy": 11.811394, "activity_lines": [ 1.198333, 1.244618, 1.23339, 1.167191 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.025, "volume": 104049, "typical_volume": 368981.3, "trend": 1.015667, "fair_value": 7.446904, "relative_strength": -55.217439, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 0.332806, "energy": 9.409783, "activity_lines": [ 1.131, 1.209582, 1.210986, 1.16943 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }