{ "ticker": { "uuid": "bc9d75a0-67f9-432a-9142-8e7e4f23eabb", "symbol": "605133", "name": "Jiangsu Rongtai Industry Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -60.718, "architecture_energy": 72.856, "architecture_maturity": 17.649, "architecture_confidence": 81.458, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.09, "rotation_up": 10.79, "upward_expansion": 18.37, "deceleration": 34.46, "rotation_down": 71.85, "downward_expansion": 87.04 }, "activity_lines": [ 25.892667, 29.079853, 31.735209, 31.770675 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 26.59, "trend_reference": 32.059899, "distance_from_trend": -0.170615, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 24.99097, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.063984, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -22.703813, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.17371, "excess_performance": -0.130507, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.170615, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.048988, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.063984, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.462692, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.227038, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.220371, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.17371, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.799542, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 33653475, "relative_activity": 0.812443, "balance": 0.799542, "dry_up": 1.163234, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.18047, "annualized_volatility": 0.673098, "from_high_reference": -0.488654, "from_low_reference": 0.257805 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 32.059899, "fair_value_reference": 24.99097, "structural_low": 21.139999, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": -0.014743, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.5625, "median_excess_return": -0.003806, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.521557, "worst_return": -0.196964, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.201352, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.085045, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.428218, "worst_return": -0.360633, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.06588, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.028508, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.367602, "worst_return": -0.232689, "sufficient": false }, { 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"2026-07-17", "close": 26.1, "volume": 59801446, "typical_volume": 37508238.55, "trend": 32.845233, "fair_value": 25.006911, "relative_strength": -21.971627, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -31.627513, "energy": 22.697694, "activity_lines": [ 32.247333, 33.773308, 33.835309, 33.220204 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 25.48, "volume": 61233333, "typical_volume": 39514819.5, "trend": 32.625899, "fair_value": 24.996455, "relative_strength": -24.379251, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -34.811681, "energy": 36.875199, "activity_lines": [ 29.586667, 32.00264, 33.151133, 32.745027 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 23.25, "volume": 38048126, "typical_volume": 40513806.55, "trend": 32.316566, "fair_value": 24.974871, "relative_strength": -30.836903, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.089408, "energy": 70.041534, "activity_lines": [ 26.862, 30.077062, 32.271338, 32.140131 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 26.59, "volume": 33653475, "typical_volume": 41422543.25, "trend": 32.059899, "fair_value": 24.99097, "relative_strength": -22.703813, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.7177, "energy": 72.856248, "activity_lines": [ 25.892667, 29.079853, 31.735209, 31.770675 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }