{ "ticker": { "uuid": "bc9f9f90-5a8f-42eb-aa1f-671a78603c1d", "symbol": "MCG", "name": "Mobico Group Plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 55.28, "architecture_energy": 29.588, "architecture_maturity": 14.338, "architecture_confidence": 66.282, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 39.13, "rotation_up": 49.77, "upward_expansion": 75.84, "deceleration": 57.32, "rotation_down": 19.01, "downward_expansion": 2.51 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.25076, 0.248091, 0.240365, 0.236585 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.2568, "trend_reference": 0.234363, "distance_from_trend": 0.095735, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.510506, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.496969, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -5.481457, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.0272, "excess_performance": -0.024035, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.095735, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.012587, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.496969, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.091956, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.054815, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.121602, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.0272, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.512436, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 30411251, "relative_activity": 1.217291, "balance": 0.512436, "dry_up": 1.216434, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.119935, "annualized_volatility": 0.81862, "from_high_reference": -0.304819, "from_low_reference": 0.505275 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.234363, "fair_value_reference": 0.510506, "structural_low": 0.1706, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.005676, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.005284, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.127619, "worst_return": -0.097973, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.010417, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.011047, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.010417, "worst_return": 0.010417, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.189583, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.154508, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.189583, "worst_return": -0.189583, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"activity_lines": [ 0.252347, 0.242225, 0.234706, 0.233607 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.2506, "volume": 17363024, "typical_volume": 23746338.25, "trend": 0.23295, "fair_value": 0.51826, "relative_strength": -8.740571, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 57.203879, "energy": 56.639766, "activity_lines": [ 0.253187, 0.245145, 0.236878, 0.234755 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.238, "volume": 66291041, "typical_volume": 25391220.3, "trend": 0.23349, "fair_value": 0.514212, "relative_strength": -13.235637, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 52.114017, "energy": 41.278855, "activity_lines": [ 0.24892, 0.245135, 0.237793, 0.235081 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.2568, "volume": 30411251, "typical_volume": 24982730.15, "trend": 0.234363, "fair_value": 0.510506, "relative_strength": -5.481457, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 55.280472, "energy": 29.588175, "activity_lines": [ 0.25076, 0.248091, 0.240365, 0.236585 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }