{ "ticker": { "uuid": "bca0681e-8b22-4dad-87e8-2bd9cb9ed6ab", "symbol": "4430", "name": "Yao I Fabric Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 77.905, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -7.587, "architecture_energy": 8.146, "architecture_maturity": 17.807, "architecture_confidence": 61.702, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 66.66, "rotation_up": 28.0, "upward_expansion": 24.23, "deceleration": 48.29, "rotation_down": 25.02, "downward_expansion": 48.56 }, "activity_lines": [ 17.506667, 17.368182, 17.366905, 17.51871 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 17.9, "trend_reference": 17.746667, "distance_from_trend": 0.00864, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 19.857175, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.098563, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -30.127849, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.02981, "excess_performance": -0.471182, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.00864, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.007087, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.098563, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.059704, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.301278, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.092815, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.02981, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.564195, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 313112, "relative_activity": 1.784227, "balance": 2.564195, "dry_up": 1.298241, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.051569, "annualized_volatility": 0.158902, "from_high_reference": -0.105, "from_low_reference": 0.084848 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 17.746667, "fair_value_reference": 19.857175, "structural_low": 16.5, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": -0.002336, "positive_rate": 0.36, "directional_follow_through": 0.36, "median_excess_return": -0.018804, "regime_survival": 0.52, "best_return": 0.116973, "worst_return": -0.211982, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.007009, "positive_rate": 0.384615, "directional_follow_through": 0.384615, "median_excess_return": 0.018859, "regime_survival": 0.307692, "best_return": 0.105634, "worst_return": -0.057604, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.029238, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.080721, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.030517, "worst_return": 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"stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.567444, "energy": 44.612562, "activity_lines": [ 17.086666, 17.229091, 17.381905, 17.586667 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 17.1, "volume": 208020, "typical_volume": 149134.2, "trend": 17.736667, "fair_value": 19.928239, "relative_strength": -32.810224, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.01383, "energy": 41.423621, "activity_lines": [ 17.05, 17.203636, 17.333095, 17.544731 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 17.5, "volume": 261000, "typical_volume": 160631.95, "trend": 17.735, "fair_value": 19.902816, "relative_strength": -29.436181, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.791825, "energy": 28.853487, "activity_lines": [ 17.18, 17.249091, 17.330714, 17.529462 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 17.4, "volume": 129175, "typical_volume": 164297.95, "trend": 17.731667, "fair_value": 19.878243, "relative_strength": -30.620392, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -43.483566, "energy": 21.0757, "activity_lines": [ 17.26, 17.265454, 17.322619, 17.507849 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 17.9, "volume": 313112, "typical_volume": 175488.85, "trend": 17.746667, "fair_value": 19.857175, "relative_strength": -30.127849, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -7.587276, "energy": 8.145832, "activity_lines": [ 17.506667, 17.368182, 17.366905, 17.51871 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }