{ "ticker": { "uuid": "bcaa7f07-64f8-4013-a3e5-592c9bfb8582", "symbol": "6591", "name": "Sun Max Tech Limited", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-21", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -74.892, "architecture_energy": 66.221, "architecture_maturity": 69.458, "architecture_confidence": 79.044, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.31, "rotation_up": 17.14, "upward_expansion": 11.41, "deceleration": 47.0, "rotation_down": 70.61, "downward_expansion": 87.07 }, "activity_lines": [ 44.03, 45.213281, 47.656165, 49.801903 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 42.849998, "trend_reference": 53.112765, "distance_from_trend": -0.193226, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 52.960455, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.190906, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -51.606245, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.289863, "excess_performance": -0.635596, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.193226, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.13154, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.190906, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.135744, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.516062, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.008239, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.289863, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.884209, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 579039, "relative_activity": 0.465835, "balance": 1.884209, "dry_up": 0.592923, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.072721, "annualized_volatility": 0.336282, "from_high_reference": -0.54395, "from_low_reference": 0.03753 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 53.112765, "fair_value_reference": 52.960455, "structural_low": 41.299999, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 24, "median_return": 0.009835, "positive_rate": 0.541667, "directional_follow_through": 0.458333, "median_excess_return": -0.012585, "regime_survival": 0.791667, "best_return": 0.570681, "worst_return": -0.129032, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.080146, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.033438, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.398899, "worst_return": -0.185729, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.123115, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.025572, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.819653, "worst_return": -0.289863, "sufficient": true }, 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.003556, "energy": 79.55441, "activity_lines": [ 44.773334, 46.730193, 48.919409, 51.162155 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 44.700001, "volume": 837478, "typical_volume": 1265249.9, "trend": 53.921672, "fair_value": 52.958488, "relative_strength": -51.108066, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.860277, "energy": 69.6905, "activity_lines": [ 44.553334, 46.058495, 48.343948, 50.516204 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-21", "close": 42.849998, "volume": 579039, "typical_volume": 1243013.65, "trend": 53.112765, "fair_value": 52.960455, "relative_strength": -51.606245, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.891761, "energy": 66.220639, "activity_lines": [ 44.03, 45.213281, 47.656165, 49.801903 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }