{ "ticker": { "uuid": "bcab772b-33c0-483a-9d56-b56a0ba8b256", "symbol": "CLS", "name": "Celestica Inc.", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 75.635, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Momentum cooling", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -17.106, "architecture_energy": 29.212, "architecture_maturity": 33.527, "architecture_confidence": 57.979, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 46.82, "rotation_up": 16.97, "upward_expansion": 18.92, "deceleration": 54.78, "rotation_down": 56.04, "downward_expansion": 46.26 }, "activity_lines": [ 319.552, 330.522727, 348.463476, 341.900538 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 317.83, "trend_reference": 330.117, "distance_from_trend": -0.03722, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 148.528654, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.139856, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -7.114933, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.033493, "excess_performance": -0.092132, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.03722, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.035256, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.139856, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.970528, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.071149, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.390902, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.033493, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.897669, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 19367399, "relative_activity": 1.704061, "balance": 0.897669, "dry_up": 1.402732, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.181424, "annualized_volatility": 0.561236, "from_high_reference": -0.329508, "from_low_reference": 0.834728 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 330.117, "fair_value_reference": 148.528654, "structural_low": 244.5101, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.047662, "positive_rate": 0.307692, "directional_follow_through": 0.307692, "median_excess_return": -0.01595, "regime_survival": 0.461538, "best_return": 0.352968, "worst_return": -0.135947, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.127757, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": 0.070001, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.36853, "worst_return": -0.193969, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.286602, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.118673, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 1.639987, "worst_return": -0.090993, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 1.049011, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.951876, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.598048, "worst_return": -0.001838, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-08-16", "end": "2024-09-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.251004, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-09-13", "end": "2024-09-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.113582, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2024-10-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.074122, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-25", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.261603, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.277681, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.188803, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.283933, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.046369, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 1.422086, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.12877, "active": 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"typical_volume": 9953358.05, "trend": 328.574, "fair_value": 142.813333, "relative_strength": -6.961955, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -6.111182, "energy": 16.252506, "activity_lines": [ 333.489333, 349.848, 356.876857, 343.981484 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 305.28, "volume": 10769117, "typical_volume": 9992287.95, "trend": 328.631333, "fair_value": 144.637436, "relative_strength": -5.783963, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -22.892739, "energy": 25.580372, "activity_lines": [ 321.417333, 340.196727, 353.128429, 342.478645 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 331.44, "volume": 24138637, "typical_volume": 10784399.15, "trend": 329.599333, "fair_value": 146.625192, "relative_strength": 0.620097, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -15.082933, "energy": 24.825735, "activity_lines": [ 322.55, 336.270364, 351.605905, 342.659849 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 317.83, "volume": 19367399, "typical_volume": 11365437.05, "trend": 330.117, "fair_value": 148.528654, "relative_strength": -7.114933, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -17.1059, "energy": 29.21161, "activity_lines": [ 319.552, 330.522727, 348.463476, 341.900538 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }