{ "ticker": { "uuid": "bcadc212-18f2-443c-b07a-98a534182898", "symbol": "3092", "name": "Riyadh Cement Company", "exchange": "SAU", "country": "SA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TASI.SR", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 58.128, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -58.536, "architecture_energy": 61.434, "architecture_maturity": 19.718, "architecture_confidence": 89.179, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 27.54, "rotation_up": 11.66, "upward_expansion": 13.64, "deceleration": 37.88, "rotation_down": 65.34, "downward_expansion": 86.98 }, "activity_lines": [ 22.096, 22.344727, 22.612047, 22.771687 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 22.52, "trend_reference": 23.014373, "distance_from_trend": -0.021481, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 26.239243, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.141744, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -5.145545, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.033287, "excess_performance": -0.001458, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.021481, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.013039, "read": "Falling" 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20.870001, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": -0.00354, "positive_rate": 0.48, "directional_follow_through": 0.52, "median_excess_return": -0.003642, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.06422, "worst_return": -0.122628, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.020813, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.026775, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.242187, "worst_return": -0.119795, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.037904, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.028842, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.223517, "worst_return": -0.208539, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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22.741333, 22.702909, 22.884902, 22.991324 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 22.52, "volume": 436666, "typical_volume": 696914.1, "trend": 23.12042, "fair_value": 26.332817, "relative_strength": -5.940533, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.114954, "energy": 34.722917, "activity_lines": [ 22.638667, 22.664, 22.843037, 22.950459 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 20.870001, "volume": 1115614, "typical_volume": 732277.7, "trend": 23.040546, "fair_value": 26.280209, "relative_strength": -10.488412, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -87.361419, "energy": 79.285101, "activity_lines": [ 22.015334, 22.335818, 22.644472, 22.805271 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 22.52, "volume": 748945, "typical_volume": 753410.8, "trend": 23.014373, "fair_value": 26.239243, "relative_strength": -5.145545, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.536246, "energy": 61.433968, "activity_lines": [ 22.096, 22.344727, 22.612047, 22.771687 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }