{ "ticker": { "uuid": "bcb67560-2ecc-4e50-a0b7-07e5a42bb64a", "symbol": "RCUS", "name": "Arcus Biosciences Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 56.141, "architecture_energy": 35.526, "architecture_maturity": 50.278, "architecture_confidence": 62.123, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.35, "rotation_up": 42.98, "upward_expansion": 71.25, "deceleration": 69.67, "rotation_down": 24.86, "downward_expansion": 9.25 }, "activity_lines": [ 28.318667, 28.213636, 26.843238, 25.641333 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 28.62, "trend_reference": 24.102333, "distance_from_trend": 0.187437, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 16.870128, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.69649, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 20.699679, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.360913, "excess_performance": 0.235288, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.187437, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.074718, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.69649, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.142605, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.206997, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.146206, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.360913, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.322424, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6503191, "relative_activity": 1.100259, "balance": 1.322424, "dry_up": 0.953763, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.107389, "annualized_volatility": 0.520293, "from_high_reference": -0.098157, "from_low_reference": 2.222973 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 24.102333, "fair_value_reference": 16.870128, "structural_low": 18.515, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": -0.054017, "positive_rate": 0.4375, "directional_follow_through": 0.4375, "median_excess_return": -0.072635, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.322603, "worst_return": -0.235867, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.020437, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.004688, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.868924, "worst_return": -0.193627, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.183792, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.283219, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.907118, "worst_return": -0.491422, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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23.685333, "fair_value": 16.744615, "relative_strength": 29.106673, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.705486, "energy": 62.261227, "activity_lines": [ 28.666667, 27.647818, 26.223048, 25.042882 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 28.19, "volume": 5790510, "typical_volume": 5960675.4, "trend": 23.848667, "fair_value": 16.803397, "relative_strength": 24.832709, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 55.609906, "energy": 39.208218, "activity_lines": [ 28.327333, 27.934909, 26.527476, 25.333505 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 28.62, "volume": 6503191, "typical_volume": 5910601.75, "trend": 24.102333, "fair_value": 16.870128, "relative_strength": 20.699679, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 56.140987, "energy": 35.525929, "activity_lines": [ 28.318667, 28.213636, 26.843238, 25.641333 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }