{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "bcb6883c-8add-4e64-96d8-f8a9bb7e974c",
    "symbol": "MDNE3",
    "name": "Moura Dubeux Engenharia S.A.",
    "exchange": "SAO",
    "country": "BR",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^BVSP",
    "stage": 4,
    "stage_name": "Declining",
    "phase": "4a",
    "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown",
    "transition": "stage_4_declining",
    "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact",
    "confidence": 78.478,
    "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion",
    "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction",
    "architecture_gate": "down",
    "architecture_direction": -64.732,
    "architecture_energy": 75.682,
    "architecture_maturity": 15.193,
    "architecture_confidence": 85.327,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 22.22,
        "rotation_up": 12.17,
        "upward_expansion": 20.04,
        "deceleration": 34.26,
        "rotation_down": 75.59,
        "downward_expansion": 93.37
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        25.035333,
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        27.265762,
        28.194882
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      "activity_state": "Moderate",
      "activity_direction": "Expanding",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": -0.666667
    },
    "latest_close": 24.9,
    "trend_reference": 28.950667,
    "distance_from_trend": -0.139916,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 16.110114,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.545613,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": -8.279919,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": -0.201667,
    "excess_performance": -0.144619,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.139916,
        "read": "Below"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.035158,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.545613,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.497576,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.082799,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.140213,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.201667,
        "read": "Negative"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": false,
        "value": 0.419762,
        "read": "Supply-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 5488400,
      "relative_activity": 1.093812,
      "balance": 0.419762,
      "dry_up": 1.116736,
      "accumulation_observations": 1,
      "distribution_observations": 5
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.08684,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.357604,
      "from_high_reference": -0.273629,
      "from_low_reference": 0.348331
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    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 28.950667,
      "fair_value_reference": 16.110114,
      "structural_low": 23.549999,
      "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired."
    },
    "outcomes": [
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        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 14,
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        "positive_rate": 0.571429,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.428571,
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        "worst_return": -0.213675,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
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        "worst_return": -0.330049,
        "sufficient": true
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        "horizon": "Extended",
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        "horizon": "Full cycle",
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        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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        "fair_value": 13.97101,
        "relative_strength": 14.611376,
        "stage": 2,
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        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 64.453403,
        "energy": 45.377467,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-04-24",
        "close": 31.860001,
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        "fair_value": 14.147635,
        "relative_strength": 11.828101,
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        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
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        "direction": 56.719914,
        "energy": 43.069485,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-01",
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        "fair_value": 14.313455,
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        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
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        "direction": 52.615467,
        "energy": 34.988976,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
        "close": 29.57,
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        "typical_volume": 6699200.0,
        "trend": 27.46438,
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        "relative_strength": 5.741372,
        "stage": 2,
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        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
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        "direction": 37.573756,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-15",
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        "typical_volume": 6959005.0,
        "trend": 27.640299,
        "fair_value": 14.615901,
        "relative_strength": 1.239839,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
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        "energy": 10.962162,
        "activity_lines": [
          29.518667,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
        "close": 27.030001,
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        "typical_volume": 7017000.0,
        "trend": 27.79778,
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        "relative_strength": -0.042806,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
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        "direction": -3.285374,
        "energy": 19.100192,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
        "close": 28.110001,
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        "typical_volume": 6825875.0,
        "trend": 27.967392,
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        "relative_strength": 4.923613,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
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        "direction": 3.329814,
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
        "close": 26.209999,
        "volume": 1631900,
        "typical_volume": 6438035.0,
        "trend": 27.990409,
        "fair_value": 15.020062,
        "relative_strength": 0.412071,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Momentum cooling",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -27.060189,
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        "activity_lines": [
          27.263333,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
        "close": 27.360001,
        "volume": 636000,
        "typical_volume": 6048040.0,
        "trend": 28.062307,
        "fair_value": 15.153319,
        "relative_strength": 3.238467,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "modifier": "Supply rotation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -19.123596,
        "energy": 41.188962,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-19",
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        "fair_value": 15.283585,
        "relative_strength": 4.076534,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "modifier": "Supply rotation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -18.456037,
        "energy": 29.144884,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
        "close": 29.48,
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        "typical_volume": 4998565.0,
        "trend": 28.313391,
        "fair_value": 15.427011,
        "relative_strength": 8.909427,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "modifier": "Supply rotation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -18.956095,
        "energy": 18.12151,
        "activity_lines": [
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          29.212175
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
        "close": 30.049999,
        "volume": 576100,
        "typical_volume": 4741105.0,
        "trend": 28.577551,
        "fair_value": 15.567996,
        "relative_strength": 9.990128,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 3.893675,
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        "activity_lines": [
          28.729333,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
        "close": 27.02,
        "volume": 12108000,
        "typical_volume": 5218340.0,
        "trend": 28.726839,
        "fair_value": 15.691242,
        "relative_strength": -3.22025,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -15.06444,
        "energy": 11.106055,
        "activity_lines": [
          28.377333,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 24.74,
        "volume": 6080500,
        "typical_volume": 5195780.0,
        "trend": 28.842593,
        "fair_value": 15.79903,
        "relative_strength": -9.386199,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -40.360292,
        "energy": 24.985833,
        "activity_lines": [
          27.211333,
          27.426364,
          28.408143,
          28.966512
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 25.23,
        "volume": 4948200,
        "typical_volume": 5060925.0,
        "trend": 28.950334,
        "fair_value": 15.908374,
        "relative_strength": -7.867428,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -65.034161,
        "energy": 60.484092,
        "activity_lines": [
          26.383333,
          27.019455,
          28.02781,
          28.733441
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 24.71,
        "volume": 5896600,
        "typical_volume": 5074320.0,
        "trend": 29.007334,
        "fair_value": 16.009576,
        "relative_strength": -11.750637,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -67.440217,
        "energy": 72.688668,
        "activity_lines": [
          25.518667,
          26.557455,
          27.625857,
          28.459871
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 24.9,
        "volume": 5488400,
        "typical_volume": 5017680.0,
        "trend": 28.950667,
        "fair_value": 16.110114,
        "relative_strength": -8.279919,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -64.732324,
        "energy": 75.682418,
        "activity_lines": [
          25.035333,
          26.172182,
          27.265762,
          28.194882
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}