{ "ticker": { "uuid": "bcbde6ba-f85b-4799-ab21-f27bfc16c749", "symbol": "AZZA3", "name": "Azzas 2154 S.A.", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -62.08, "architecture_energy": 51.915, "architecture_maturity": 54.747, "architecture_confidence": 94.04, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 21.58, "rotation_up": 23.45, "upward_expansion": 8.53, "deceleration": 47.28, "rotation_down": 54.6, "downward_expansion": 81.86 }, "activity_lines": [ 17.130667, 17.484727, 18.382285, 19.788516 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 17.01, "trend_reference": 21.584333, "distance_from_trend": -0.211928, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 36.13329, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.529243, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -31.624482, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.314666, "excess_performance": -0.257617, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.211928, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.105823, "read": "Falling" 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"structural_low": 15.43, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 33, "median_return": 0.013126, "positive_rate": 0.515152, "directional_follow_through": 0.484848, "median_excess_return": -0.003031, "regime_survival": 0.787879, "best_return": 0.389238, "worst_return": -0.251886, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.012941, "positive_rate": 0.363636, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": -0.127419, "regime_survival": 0.454545, "best_return": 0.677083, "worst_return": -0.293761, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.106675, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.20377, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.057274, "worst_return": -0.232253, 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18.222666, 18.305272, 19.751905, 21.087215 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 18.59, "volume": 6328000, "typical_volume": 12595460.0, "trend": 22.366333, "fair_value": 37.171959, "relative_strength": -29.899256, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.596255, "energy": 35.999424, "activity_lines": [ 18.420666, 18.292727, 19.485905, 20.833634 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 16.65, "volume": 8302800, "typical_volume": 12153760.0, "trend": 22.106, "fair_value": 36.82134, "relative_strength": -36.111086, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.40779, "energy": 48.676542, "activity_lines": [ 17.878667, 17.960363, 19.071238, 20.464839 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 16.42, "volume": 11532900, "typical_volume": 11508590.0, "trend": 21.807, "fair_value": 36.466576, "relative_strength": -37.186902, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.387102, "energy": 48.768042, "activity_lines": [ 17.320667, 17.629818, 18.672238, 20.098 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 17.01, "volume": 16463700, "typical_volume": 11460755.0, "trend": 21.584333, "fair_value": 36.13329, "relative_strength": -31.624482, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.080063, "energy": 51.915394, "activity_lines": [ 17.130667, 17.484727, 18.382285, 19.788516 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }