{ "ticker": { "uuid": "bcc09e17-0278-44e4-b266-a9f5e02a4958", "symbol": "RSPS", "name": "Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight Sw", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 85.306, "architecture_energy": 72.909, "architecture_maturity": 56.563, "architecture_confidence": 72.999, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 9.09, "rotation_up": 61.54, "upward_expansion": 85.33, "deceleration": 68.56, "rotation_down": 28.04, "downward_expansion": 12.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.178333, 5.1525, 5.033526, 4.937692 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 5.244, "trend_reference": 4.828667, "distance_from_trend": 0.086014, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 4.538537, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.155438, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -3.293971, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.125443, "excess_performance": -0.045449, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.086014, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.046329, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.155438, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.076693, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.03294, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.020379, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.125443, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 4.862408, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 27931, "relative_activity": 1.559816, "balance": 4.862408, "dry_up": 0.563647, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.014023, "annualized_volatility": 0.086948, "from_high_reference": -0.005877, "from_low_reference": 0.224947 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.828667, "fair_value_reference": 4.538537, "structural_low": 4.5175, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.021625, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2025-01-24", "close": 4.6715, "volume": 13025, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2025-01-31", "close": 4.7375, "volume": 500, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2025-02-07", "close": 4.7035, "volume": 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"activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 5.179, "volume": 1261, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 5.165, "volume": 10190, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 5.175, "volume": 5222, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.136, "volume": 4215, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.133, "volume": 3004, "typical_volume": 20504.65, "trend": 4.8074, "fair_value": 4.529719, "relative_strength": -2.647697, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.770159, "energy": 67.235055, "activity_lines": [ 5.149533, 5.122755, 4.998752, 4.909525 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.244, "volume": 27931, "typical_volume": 17906.6, "trend": 4.828667, "fair_value": 4.538537, "relative_strength": -3.293971, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 85.306212, "energy": 72.909346, "activity_lines": [ 5.178333, 5.1525, 5.033526, 4.937692 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }