{ "ticker": { "uuid": "bcc2ec07-d8ea-4ad5-a57c-10cae964bff7", "symbol": "601177", "name": "Hangzhou Advance Gearbox Group Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -56.896, "architecture_energy": 47.56, "architecture_maturity": 24.686, "architecture_confidence": 84.133, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 22.35, "rotation_up": 15.38, "upward_expansion": 7.19, "deceleration": 46.39, "rotation_down": 55.69, "downward_expansion": 75.86 }, "activity_lines": [ 12.778667, 13.013639, 13.974141, 14.448091 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 13.16, "trend_reference": 15.188775, "distance_from_trend": -0.133571, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 12.613777, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.043304, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -19.369747, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.205794, "excess_performance": -0.16259, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.133571, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.077783, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.043304, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.310249, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.193697, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.068082, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.205794, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.953494, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 29403800, "relative_activity": 0.708446, "balance": 1.953494, "dry_up": 0.742213, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.12602, "annualized_volatility": 0.487215, "from_high_reference": -0.415111, "from_low_reference": 0.126712 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 15.188775, "fair_value_reference": 12.613777, "structural_low": 11.68, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 26, "median_return": -0.006767, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.007121, "regime_survival": 0.807692, "best_return": 0.143132, "worst_return": -0.253535, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.076016, "positive_rate": 0.777778, "directional_follow_through": 0.222222, "median_excess_return": 0.036767, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.208078, "worst_return": -0.102921, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.062894, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": 0.001959, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.414922, "worst_return": -0.117318, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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47.560047, "activity_lines": [ 12.778667, 13.013639, 13.974141, 14.448091 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }