{ "ticker": { "uuid": "bcc42637-b582-42aa-ab27-b1c164c9b89d", "symbol": "BAPR", "name": "Innovator U.S. Equity Buffer ETF - April", "exchange": "CBOE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 76.654, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 87.467, "architecture_energy": 78.247, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 80.658, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 5.76, "rotation_up": 63.94, "upward_expansion": 90.42, "deceleration": 49.65, "rotation_down": 28.08, "downward_expansion": 14.76 }, "activity_lines": [ 53.73434, 53.474587, 53.060213, 52.198534 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 54.29, "trend_reference": 51.01367, "distance_from_trend": 0.064225, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 43.934545, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.235702, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -1.878138, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.122622, "excess_performance": -0.003003, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.064225, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.038297, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.235702, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.003276, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.018781, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.007531, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.122622, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.966726, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 39269, "relative_activity": 0.495903, "balance": 0.966726, "dry_up": 0.66231, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.010255, "annualized_volatility": 0.074136, "from_high_reference": 0.0, "from_low_reference": 0.182771 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 51.01367, "fair_value_reference": 43.934545, "structural_low": 47.32, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 46, "median_return": 0.008572, "positive_rate": 0.673913, "directional_follow_through": 0.673913, "median_excess_return": -0.003546, "regime_survival": 0.826087, "best_return": 0.051516, "worst_return": -0.06129, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.02605, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.004105, "regime_survival": 0.6875, "best_return": 0.089978, "worst_return": -0.070348, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.064638, "positive_rate": 0.888889, "directional_follow_through": 0.888889, "median_excess_return": -0.024702, "regime_survival": 0.777778, "best_return": 0.122604, "worst_return": -0.077883, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"fair_value": 43.486574, "relative_strength": -1.024698, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 76.442483, "energy": 71.159492, "activity_lines": [ 53.196787, 53.060898, 52.316295, 51.402927 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 53.3075, "volume": 123832, "typical_volume": 82239.45, "trend": 50.452593, "fair_value": 43.596046, "relative_strength": 0.079153, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.864953, "energy": 76.923443, "activity_lines": [ 53.265473, 53.1261, 52.507689, 51.598796 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 53.2016, "volume": 19122, "typical_volume": 79399.05, "trend": 50.624397, "fair_value": 43.703261, "relative_strength": 0.4924, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.109144, "energy": 76.530765, "activity_lines": [ 53.270047, 53.159184, 52.666104, 51.776151 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 53.694, "volume": 27562, "typical_volume": 79003.15, "trend": 50.81267, "fair_value": 43.81684, "relative_strength": 0.378044, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 75.029308, "energy": 68.578618, "activity_lines": [ 53.43716, 53.270558, 52.84774, 51.97419 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 54.29, "volume": 39269, "typical_volume": 79186.85, "trend": 51.01367, "fair_value": 43.934545, "relative_strength": -1.878138, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 87.467221, "energy": 78.247304, "activity_lines": [ 53.73434, 53.474587, 53.060213, 52.198534 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }