{ "ticker": { "uuid": "bcc5f429-2843-4156-a12c-8cda71e201aa", "symbol": "PMED", "name": "PEPTONIC Medical AB", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 95.127, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -21.999, "architecture_energy": 10.937, "architecture_maturity": 29.313, "architecture_confidence": 62.856, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 48.6, "rotation_up": 16.88, "upward_expansion": 21.51, "deceleration": 61.32, "rotation_down": 46.53, "downward_expansion": 57.18 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.001213, 0.001255, 0.001222, 0.001214 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 0.0012, "trend_reference": 0.001273, "distance_from_trend": -0.057592, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.017043, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.929588, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -33.767633, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.4, "excess_performance": -0.461494, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.057592, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.200887, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.929588, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.027546, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.337676, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.166853, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.4, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.287544, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 822537602, "relative_activity": 0.995139, "balance": 1.287544, "dry_up": 0.767458, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.538462, "annualized_volatility": 1.132655, "from_high_reference": -0.714286, "from_low_reference": 1.0 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.001273, "fair_value_reference": 0.017043, "structural_low": 0.0006, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": -0.126984, "positive_rate": 0.0625, "directional_follow_through": 0.0625, "median_excess_return": -0.139003, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.202899, "worst_return": -0.4, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.347222, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.399633, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": -0.08642, "worst_return": -0.824074, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.486111, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.594778, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.283951, "worst_return": -0.895062, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.811728, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.995458, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.722222, "worst_return": -0.901235, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2021-07-09", "end": "2022-01-14", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.478477, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2022-01-21", "end": "2022-02-04", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.015255, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2022-02-11", "end": "2023-06-23", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.773844, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-06-30", "end": "2023-11-24", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.259259, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-12-01", "end": "2024-02-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.006452, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-02-23", "end": "2024-03-15", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.209877, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-03-22", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.920833, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.333333, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.111111, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-11-07", 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decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -7.510068, "energy": 8.921646, "activity_lines": [ 0.00136, 0.001313, 0.001203, 0.001249 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.0012, "volume": 809415007, "typical_volume": 838032631.35, "trend": 0.001347, "fair_value": 0.01843, "relative_strength": -32.262953, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -11.460209, "energy": 6.370334, "activity_lines": [ 0.001307, 0.001302, 0.001208, 0.001237 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.0012, "volume": 549411813, "typical_volume": 841720155.55, "trend": 0.001313, "fair_value": 0.017976, "relative_strength": -32.652156, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -24.09266, "energy": 10.328187, "activity_lines": [ 0.001267, 0.001287, 0.001212, 0.001228 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.0012, "volume": 356020247, "typical_volume": 840305057.55, "trend": 0.0013, "fair_value": 0.017503, "relative_strength": -33.027456, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -28.453002, "energy": 11.735166, "activity_lines": [ 0.00124, 0.001269, 0.001217, 0.001221 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.0012, "volume": 822537602, "typical_volume": 826555073.3, "trend": 0.001273, "fair_value": 0.017043, "relative_strength": -33.767633, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -21.999372, "energy": 10.93746, "activity_lines": [ 0.001213, 0.001255, 0.001222, 0.001214 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }