{ "ticker": { "uuid": "bcca0f43-cbb7-4ec4-85a5-65a9cff33b54", "symbol": "NI", "name": "NiSource Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -53.36, "architecture_energy": 61.957, "architecture_maturity": 14.187, "architecture_confidence": 76.857, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 30.74, "rotation_up": 16.57, "upward_expansion": 19.8, "deceleration": 43.78, "rotation_down": 73.49, "downward_expansion": 61.47 }, "activity_lines": [ 44.519963, 45.662346, 46.352353, 46.432651 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 42.61, "trend_reference": 46.181377, "distance_from_trend": -0.077334, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 35.32432, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.206251, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -14.15635, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.027783, "excess_performance": -0.153408, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.077334, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.033443, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.206251, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.187354, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.141564, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.120417, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.027783, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.734053, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 42279583, "relative_activity": 1.896941, "balance": 0.734053, "dry_up": 1.265169, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.047677, "annualized_volatility": 0.187685, "from_high_reference": -0.130053, "from_low_reference": 0.130153 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 46.181377, "fair_value_reference": 35.32432, "structural_low": 41.95, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": 0.012565, "positive_rate": 0.722222, "directional_follow_through": 0.722222, "median_excess_return": -0.000697, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.072248, "worst_return": -0.195338, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.007751, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.044142, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.106352, "worst_return": -0.113505, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.082851, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.002691, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.265018, "worst_return": -0.064883, 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"typical_volume": 20833869.5, "trend": 46.050143, "fair_value": 35.080004, "relative_strength": -2.804392, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 9.94095, "energy": 11.458745, "activity_lines": [ 46.535119, 46.866495, 46.995888, 46.765173 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 44.43, "volume": 21036416, "typical_volume": 20949523.15, "trend": 46.143954, "fair_value": 35.208936, "relative_strength": -7.642305, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -30.590889, "energy": 28.647386, "activity_lines": [ 45.686847, 46.398784, 46.754437, 46.660648 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 42.61, "volume": 42279583, "typical_volume": 22288301.7, "trend": 46.181377, "fair_value": 35.32432, "relative_strength": -14.15635, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -53.360371, "energy": 61.957445, "activity_lines": [ 44.519963, 45.662346, 46.352353, 46.432651 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }