{ "ticker": { "uuid": "bccd23e5-4f27-41af-b703-3c532b2fd412", "symbol": "RTG", "name": "RTG Mining Inc.", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2c", "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 52.167, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Momentum cooling", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -20.033, "architecture_energy": 35.938, "architecture_maturity": 11.81, "architecture_confidence": 61.488, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 41.67, "rotation_up": 28.85, "upward_expansion": 17.21, "deceleration": 46.49, "rotation_down": 34.56, "downward_expansion": 36.71 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.04, 0.04, 0.041857, 0.042215 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 0.04, "trend_reference": 0.042, "distance_from_trend": -0.047619, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.035962, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.112299, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -5.689202, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.0, "excess_performance": -0.120421, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.047619, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.086207, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.112299, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.251337, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.056892, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.286959, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.0, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.0, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1497700, "relative_activity": 3.172992, "balance": 0.0, "dry_up": 1.133439, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.057692, "annualized_volatility": 0.631145, "from_high_reference": -0.2, "from_low_reference": 1.0 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.042, "fair_value_reference": 0.035962, "structural_low": 0.03, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": -0.010516, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.25, "worst_return": 0.0, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.116596, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.0, "worst_return": -0.2, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.35, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.406901, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.2, "worst_return": -0.5, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.325, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.46702, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.25, "worst_return": -0.4, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.333333, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.333333, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.25, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.2, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.25, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-06-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.2, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-06-12", "end": "2026-06-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-07-03", "end": "2026-07-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-17", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 0.05, "volume": 11700, "typical_volume": 31740.0, "trend": 0.053667, "fair_value": 0.108654, "relative_strength": -5.579826, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.918684, "energy": 61.864056, "activity_lines": [ 0.044, 0.045636, 0.048714, 0.050258 ] }, { "date": "2023-08-25", "close": 0.05, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 31570.0, "trend": 0.053333, 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"mixed", "direction": -19.18915, "energy": 37.676331, "activity_lines": [ 0.04, 0.040545, 0.042714, 0.042473 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.04, "volume": 161000, "typical_volume": 474500.0, "trend": 0.041333, "fair_value": 0.035962, "relative_strength": -2.920046, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -19.316744, "energy": 42.105063, "activity_lines": [ 0.04, 0.040182, 0.042429, 0.042409 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.04, "volume": 31000, "typical_volume": 450860.0, "trend": 0.041667, "fair_value": 0.035962, "relative_strength": -2.566562, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -24.748626, "energy": 55.875049, "activity_lines": [ 0.04, 0.04, 0.042143, 0.042323 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.04, "volume": 1497700, "typical_volume": 472015.0, "trend": 0.042, "fair_value": 0.035962, "relative_strength": -5.689202, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -20.033052, "energy": 35.938404, "activity_lines": [ 0.04, 0.04, 0.041857, 0.042215 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }