{ "ticker": { "uuid": "bccdcac6-277a-418e-9a5a-37806c7f106c", "symbol": "LUS1", "name": "Lang & Schwarz Aktiengesellschaft", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -67.962, "architecture_energy": 86.728, "architecture_maturity": 21.19, "architecture_confidence": 85.774, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 14.63, "rotation_up": 8.3, "upward_expansion": 21.54, "deceleration": 37.19, "rotation_down": 80.43, "downward_expansion": 97.21 }, "activity_lines": [ 18.11, 19.850393, 22.938037, 23.746245 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 19.1, "trend_reference": 24.327387, "distance_from_trend": -0.214877, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 17.606573, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.084822, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -23.749418, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.190678, "excess_performance": -0.255318, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.214877, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.009606, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.084822, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.592957, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.237494, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.436155, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.190678, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.476838, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 110596, "relative_activity": 1.496499, "balance": 0.476838, "dry_up": 2.49873, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.117208, "annualized_volatility": 0.558963, "from_high_reference": -0.35473, "from_low_reference": 0.33101 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 24.327387, "fair_value_reference": 17.606573, "structural_low": 14.35, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 27, "median_return": -0.013986, "positive_rate": 0.407407, "directional_follow_through": 0.592593, "median_excess_return": -0.029919, "regime_survival": 0.851852, "best_return": 0.130435, "worst_return": -0.192982, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.037537, "positive_rate": 0.3, "directional_follow_through": 0.7, "median_excess_return": -0.04799, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.439024, "worst_return": -0.287411, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.178273, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.122986, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.858639, "worst_return": -0.255, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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17.85, "volume": 229883, "typical_volume": 43507.8, "trend": 24.940721, "fair_value": 17.350577, "relative_strength": -26.324676, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -54.251147, "energy": 73.693796, "activity_lines": [ 22.23, 24.604693, 25.748925, 25.50256 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 16.85, "volume": 394554, "typical_volume": 61520.35, "trend": 24.769054, "fair_value": 17.407874, "relative_strength": -29.596634, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -62.677764, "energy": 86.304871, "activity_lines": [ 19.826667, 22.937027, 24.900251, 24.980578 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 18.0, "volume": 148901, "typical_volume": 66981.8, "trend": 24.642387, "fair_value": 17.473002, "relative_strength": -25.297374, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.97087, "energy": 90.302087, "activity_lines": [ 18.543333, 21.67027, 24.1961, 24.543865 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 17.65, "volume": 84605, "typical_volume": 70257.25, "trend": 24.470721, "fair_value": 17.534853, "relative_strength": -27.903668, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.677172, "energy": 89.048134, "activity_lines": [ 17.763333, 20.525332, 23.483854, 24.092743 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 19.1, "volume": 110596, "typical_volume": 73903.15, "trend": 24.327387, "fair_value": 17.606573, "relative_strength": -23.749418, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.962388, "energy": 86.727717, "activity_lines": [ 18.11, 19.850393, 22.938037, 23.746245 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }