{ "ticker": { "uuid": "bcd0dce6-b1ac-4e2d-abbf-e58c834069eb", "symbol": "RCSL3", "name": "Recrusul S/A", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 90.21, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -37.259, "architecture_energy": 24.49, "architecture_maturity": 97.0, "architecture_confidence": 76.424, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 39.25, "rotation_up": 29.64, "upward_expansion": 20.57, "deceleration": 46.96, "rotation_down": 23.7, "downward_expansion": 56.9 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.431333, 0.416909, 0.418857, 0.471075 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 0.41, "trend_reference": 0.551583, "distance_from_trend": -0.256685, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.039503, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.605581, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -25.228784, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.5, "excess_performance": -0.442952, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.256685, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.108192, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.605581, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.093875, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.252288, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.185841, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.5, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.354496, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2557600, "relative_activity": 3.936313, "balance": 0.354496, "dry_up": 1.391661, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.129456, "annualized_volatility": 0.484133, "from_high_reference": -0.649573, "from_low_reference": 0.171429 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.551583, "fair_value_reference": 1.039503, "structural_low": 0.35, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 43, "median_return": -0.045977, "positive_rate": 0.325581, "directional_follow_through": 0.627907, "median_excess_return": -0.057498, "regime_survival": 0.906977, "best_return": 1.503311, "worst_return": -0.491228, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.151515, "positive_rate": 0.307692, "directional_follow_through": 0.692308, "median_excess_return": -0.192252, "regime_survival": 0.692308, "best_return": 0.707447, "worst_return": -0.534314, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.297386, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.218629, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.570588, "worst_return": -0.562334, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.287719, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.435385, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.215466, "worst_return": -0.737261, "sufficient": true } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-04-19", "end": "2024-08-30", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.232026, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-09-06", "end": "2024-10-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.400794, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-10-18", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.253488, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.276923, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.182045, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.041667, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.36859, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.209677, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.345029, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { 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1.064503, "relative_strength": -23.092631, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -40.094729, "energy": 29.306375, "activity_lines": [ 0.421333, 0.402727, 0.427048, 0.488833 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.46, "volume": 419600, "typical_volume": 548080.0, "trend": 0.570667, "fair_value": 1.051106, "relative_strength": -19.143916, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -33.993959, "energy": 30.736638, "activity_lines": [ 0.437333, 0.415091, 0.424762, 0.481441 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.41, "volume": 2557600, "typical_volume": 649745.0, "trend": 0.551583, "fair_value": 1.039503, "relative_strength": -25.228784, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -37.259402, "energy": 24.490342, "activity_lines": [ 0.431333, 0.416909, 0.418857, 0.471075 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }