{ "ticker": { "uuid": "bcd5501e-3ca4-445d-afe1-4f4964e2966f", "symbol": "RNGR", "name": "Ranger Energy Services Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 58.936, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -32.556, "architecture_energy": 14.751, "architecture_maturity": 7.753, "architecture_confidence": 56.723, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 58.72, "rotation_up": 23.07, "upward_expansion": 16.74, "deceleration": 38.08, "rotation_down": 30.44, "downward_expansion": 55.41 }, "activity_lines": [ 15.903399, 15.781757, 15.924715, 16.122155 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 16.1, "trend_reference": 16.208076, "distance_from_trend": -0.006668, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 13.006227, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.237869, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -4.796934, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.010457, "excess_performance": -0.136082, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.006668, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.042479, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.237869, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.022676, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.047969, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.048993, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.010457, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.398468, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1833374, "relative_activity": 1.584558, "balance": 1.398468, "dry_up": 1.149139, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.066322, "annualized_volatility": 0.26414, "from_high_reference": -0.141054, "from_low_reference": 0.37146 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 16.208076, "fair_value_reference": 13.006227, "structural_low": 14.416275, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.061685, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": 0.052658, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.194529, "worst_return": -0.140171, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.09127, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": 0.03984, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.28615, "worst_return": -0.129909, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.260608, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.216713, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.411875, "worst_return": 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"direction": -22.207908, "energy": 17.075988, "activity_lines": [ 15.686153, 15.69177, 16.110819, 16.180618 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 15.552042, "volume": 1195374, "typical_volume": 1093151.15, "trend": 16.016693, "fair_value": 12.902737, "relative_strength": -3.988677, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -22.840177, "energy": 14.93282, "activity_lines": [ 15.6513, 15.652995, 16.029931, 16.154583 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 15.651671, "volume": 906949, "typical_volume": 1102222.95, "trend": 16.080125, "fair_value": 12.94038, "relative_strength": -2.966719, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -11.45857, "energy": 10.949109, "activity_lines": [ 15.66952, 15.637207, 15.966819, 16.131033 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 15.990408, "volume": 1382635, "typical_volume": 1136865.6, "trend": 16.147899, "fair_value": 12.97916, "relative_strength": -2.033225, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -34.192186, "energy": 15.57958, "activity_lines": [ 15.775875, 15.697523, 15.939149, 16.125245 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 16.1, "volume": 1833374, "typical_volume": 1157025.65, "trend": 16.208076, "fair_value": 13.006227, "relative_strength": -4.796934, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -32.555615, "energy": 14.750991, "activity_lines": [ 15.903399, 15.781757, 15.924715, 16.122155 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }