{ "ticker": { "uuid": "bcdf677c-6fc7-4543-93ea-c0f3eca916bf", "symbol": "002160", "name": "Jiangsu Alcha Aluminium Group Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -62.863, "architecture_energy": 55.427, "architecture_maturity": 78.753, "architecture_confidence": 88.947, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.57, "rotation_up": 26.67, "upward_expansion": 9.6, "deceleration": 60.67, "rotation_down": 53.03, "downward_expansion": 82.93 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.740667, 3.777455, 4.094714, 4.397075 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 3.93, "trend_reference": 4.838667, "distance_from_trend": -0.187793, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.090962, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.039346, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -22.057398, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.398162, "excess_performance": -0.405562, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.187793, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.096814, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.039346, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.265053, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.220574, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.059864, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.398162, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.273237, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 89912799, "relative_activity": 0.789316, "balance": 1.273237, "dry_up": 0.801591, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.094931, "annualized_volatility": 0.487594, "from_high_reference": -0.472483, "from_low_reference": 0.152493 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.838667, "fair_value_reference": 4.090962, "structural_low": 3.41, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": 0.03079, "positive_rate": 0.590909, "directional_follow_through": 0.409091, "median_excess_return": 0.018478, "regime_survival": 0.727273, "best_return": 0.251185, "worst_return": -0.193622, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.041485, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": 0.049711, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.319588, "worst_return": -0.07619, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.005076, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.0477, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.307692, "worst_return": -0.079439, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -78.339625, "energy": 90.750765, "activity_lines": [ 3.682, 3.929818, 4.311619, 4.624839 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.56, "volume": 105448172, "typical_volume": 128489839.1, "trend": 4.936, "fair_value": 4.094423, "relative_strength": -27.585558, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.391686, "energy": 86.44598, "activity_lines": [ 3.602, 3.824727, 4.210667, 4.533011 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.78, "volume": 83728285, "typical_volume": 119299652.25, "trend": 4.881, "fair_value": 4.092115, "relative_strength": -21.494125, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.581185, "energy": 64.764476, "activity_lines": [ 3.648667, 3.778727, 4.141238, 4.45843 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.93, "volume": 89912799, "typical_volume": 113912253.0, "trend": 4.838667, "fair_value": 4.090962, "relative_strength": -22.057398, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.862937, "energy": 55.42743, "activity_lines": [ 3.740667, 3.777455, 4.094714, 4.397075 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }