{ "ticker": { "uuid": "bce1eecb-d85b-4f47-8195-cccfe32c888f", "symbol": "XLBS", "name": "Invesco Materials S&P US Select Sector UCITS ETF", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 69.559, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 52.611, "architecture_energy": 23.637, "architecture_maturity": 58.514, "architecture_confidence": 76.655, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 33.8, "rotation_up": 32.67, "upward_expansion": 55.85, "deceleration": 87.98, "rotation_down": 31.89, "downward_expansion": 21.85 }, "activity_lines": [ 544.854651, 546.242896, 543.810085, 541.195046 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 560.409973, "trend_reference": 537.262662, "distance_from_trend": 0.043084, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 488.619423, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.146925, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -5.64028, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.059376, "excess_performance": -0.111516, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.043084, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.050311, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.146925, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.031057, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.056403, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.017051, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.059376, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.917945, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 669, "relative_activity": 1.173684, "balance": 0.917945, "dry_up": 0.557018, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.022493, "annualized_volatility": 0.169399, "from_high_reference": -0.000695, "from_low_reference": 0.249743 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 537.262662, "fair_value_reference": 488.619423, 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"trend": 531.592664, "fair_value": 486.799744, "relative_strength": -6.387702, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 55.221693, "energy": 36.586821, "activity_lines": [ 547.11532, 546.346718, 542.223563, 539.223822 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 538.72998, "volume": 195, "typical_volume": 579.85, "trend": 533.665996, "fair_value": 487.344551, "relative_strength": -6.227882, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 33.766164, "energy": 17.904057, "activity_lines": [ 543.521318, 545.39726, 542.251895, 539.684294 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 532.130005, "volume": 205, "typical_volume": 573.15, "trend": 535.457329, "fair_value": 487.87218, "relative_strength": -7.846066, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 10.14393, "energy": 15.920375, "activity_lines": [ 538.768656, 543.30999, 541.694754, 539.585198 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 560.409973, "volume": 669, "typical_volume": 570.0, "trend": 537.262662, "fair_value": 488.619423, "relative_strength": -5.64028, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 52.610527, "energy": 23.637282, "activity_lines": [ 544.854651, 546.242896, 543.810085, 541.195046 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }