{ "ticker": { "uuid": "bce536ef-95a3-4b55-8c0c-9c12acf071aa", "symbol": "XDSQ", "name": "Innovator U.S. Equity Accelerated ETF - Quarterly", "exchange": "CBOE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 48.894, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 89.865, "architecture_energy": 69.978, "architecture_maturity": 46.624, "architecture_confidence": 61.85, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 13.63, "rotation_up": 64.94, "upward_expansion": 82.33, "deceleration": 70.01, "rotation_down": 20.35, "downward_expansion": 11.33 }, "activity_lines": [ 43.50668, 43.255058, 42.890172, 42.462808 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 44.404, "trend_reference": 42.112793, "distance_from_trend": 0.054406, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 35.913774, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.236406, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -4.263955, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.048971, "excess_performance": -0.076654, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.054406, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.015906, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.236406, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.015401, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.04264, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.013971, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.048971, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.056208, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 125445, "relative_activity": 2.126745, "balance": 1.056208, "dry_up": 2.041507, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.011322, "annualized_volatility": 0.106692, "from_high_reference": -0.001709, "from_low_reference": 0.157258 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 42.112793, "fair_value_reference": 35.913774, "structural_low": 38.37, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 34, "median_return": 0.012192, "positive_rate": 0.764706, "directional_follow_through": 0.764706, "median_excess_return": 0.001696, "regime_survival": 0.823529, "best_return": 0.040876, "worst_return": -0.07664, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.052751, "positive_rate": 0.727273, "directional_follow_through": 0.727273, "median_excess_return": -0.003019, "regime_survival": 0.727273, "best_return": 0.07909, "worst_return": -0.096829, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.0951, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.027261, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.151393, "worst_return": 0.012524, "sufficient": true }, { 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"stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 87.691596, "energy": 91.966042, "activity_lines": [ 43.039493, 42.896824, 42.359401, 42.11252 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 42.97, "volume": 277288, "typical_volume": 60796.25, "trend": 41.970107, "fair_value": 35.635835, "relative_strength": -3.947185, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.176827, "energy": 83.17722, "activity_lines": [ 43.0395, 42.932905, 42.466501, 42.180233 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 42.662, "volume": 31212, "typical_volume": 58994.2, "trend": 41.985493, "fair_value": 35.721297, "relative_strength": -3.970991, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.383547, "energy": 57.524588, "activity_lines": [ 42.929507, 42.902271, 42.540638, 42.224872 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 43.31, "volume": 47724, "typical_volume": 57114.5, "trend": 42.040493, "fair_value": 35.813876, "relative_strength": -3.463859, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 74.775565, "energy": 58.592364, "activity_lines": [ 43.04976, 42.985455, 42.670007, 42.310324 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 44.404, "volume": 125445, "typical_volume": 58984.5, "trend": 42.112793, "fair_value": 35.913774, "relative_strength": -4.263955, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 89.865043, "energy": 69.978443, "activity_lines": [ 43.50668, 43.255058, 42.890172, 42.462808 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }