{ "ticker": { "uuid": "bceb447d-8908-44c2-b845-d479356e3843", "symbol": "EMB", "name": "EMB Mission Bound AB (publ)", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -73.584, "architecture_energy": 71.22, "architecture_maturity": 67.088, "architecture_confidence": 82.09, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 3.87, "rotation_up": 10.9, "upward_expansion": 14.65, "deceleration": 37.91, "rotation_down": 77.34, "downward_expansion": 92.65 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.508467, 0.536745, 0.5681, 0.588819 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 0.479, "trend_reference": 0.6291, "distance_from_trend": -0.238595, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.567115, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.155375, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -42.286174, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.373856, "excess_performance": -0.435351, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.238595, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.141356, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.155375, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.170923, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.422862, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.215346, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.373856, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.742998, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 380825, "relative_activity": 1.41521, "balance": 0.742998, "dry_up": 1.381176, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.149028, "annualized_volatility": 0.674918, "from_high_reference": -0.590598, "from_low_reference": 0.113953 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.6291, "fair_value_reference": 0.567115, "structural_low": 0.43, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": -0.050562, "positive_rate": 0.352941, "directional_follow_through": 0.647059, "median_excess_return": -0.044232, "regime_survival": 0.882353, "best_return": 0.424581, "worst_return": -0.243902, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.210435, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.236704, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.890323, "worst_return": -0.614428, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.387097, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.341964, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.418129, "worst_return": -0.654018, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.448626, "energy": 48.645724, "activity_lines": [ 0.564933, 0.579382, 0.596295, 0.617606 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.538, "volume": 223981, "typical_volume": 234332.8, "trend": 0.654667, "fair_value": 0.572436, "relative_strength": -33.296735, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.542989, "energy": 53.532963, "activity_lines": [ 0.5528, 0.569491, 0.589714, 0.609323 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.499, "volume": 618168, "typical_volume": 256710.95, "trend": 0.641133, "fair_value": 0.569788, "relative_strength": -38.851773, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.466516, "energy": 62.004111, "activity_lines": [ 0.5298, 0.554109, 0.579643, 0.59928 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.479, "volume": 380825, "typical_volume": 269094.4, "trend": 0.6291, "fair_value": 0.567115, "relative_strength": -42.286174, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.583785, "energy": 71.219941, "activity_lines": [ 0.508467, 0.536745, 0.5681, 0.588819 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }