{ "ticker": { "uuid": "bcf3f342-7f66-4b74-abd1-c04259a4cfa2", "symbol": "UC48", "name": "UBS MSCI AC Asia ex Japan SF UCITS ETF USD acc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 90.881, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 19.258, "architecture_energy": 25.376, "architecture_maturity": 64.953, "architecture_confidence": 89.673, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 50.42, "rotation_up": 16.68, "upward_expansion": 52.27, "deceleration": 94.0, "rotation_down": 43.82, "downward_expansion": 22.94 }, "activity_lines": [ 20403.566667, 20807.7, 20801.269048, 20295.119355 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 20595.0, "trend_reference": 19625.266667, "distance_from_trend": 0.049412, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 14856.6093, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.386252, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 3.417908, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.137468, "excess_performance": 0.086233, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.049412, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.074772, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.386252, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.095154, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.034179, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.142379, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.137468, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.661058, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4875, "relative_activity": 1.673188, "balance": 1.661058, "dry_up": 1.17432, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.041488, "annualized_volatility": 0.241912, "from_high_reference": -0.089724, "from_low_reference": 0.360951 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 19625.266667, "fair_value_reference": 14856.6093, "structural_low": 17112.0, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.010407, "positive_rate": 0.583333, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": 0.011773, "regime_survival": 0.583333, "best_return": 0.142795, "worst_return": -0.035086, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.063608, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.018667, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.257762, "worst_return": -0.045695, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.085722, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.020542, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.279654, "worst_return": -0.053048, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.009745, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.08851, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.057112, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.127396, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": 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4718.85, "trend": 19529.0, "fair_value": 14800.308018, "relative_strength": 1.820188, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 20.915544, "energy": 25.474029, "activity_lines": [ 20434.1, 20911.936364, 20762.345238, 20226.345161 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 20595.0, "volume": 4875, "typical_volume": 2913.6, "trend": 19625.266667, "fair_value": 14856.6093, "relative_strength": 3.417908, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 19.257568, "energy": 25.375597, "activity_lines": [ 20403.566667, 20807.7, 20801.269048, 20295.119355 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }