{ "ticker": { "uuid": "bd027067-e14a-47eb-8cbd-f701b4463cf7", "symbol": "VEGI", "name": "VanEck Sustainable Future of Food UCITS ETF A USD Acc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 58.325, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 52.519, "architecture_energy": 29.486, "architecture_maturity": 42.964, "architecture_confidence": 52.901, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.37, "rotation_up": 43.69, "upward_expansion": 66.46, "deceleration": 61.64, "rotation_down": 26.3, "downward_expansion": 16.46 }, "activity_lines": [ 22.904501, 22.905, 22.71631, 22.561425 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 23.137501, "trend_reference": 22.434583, "distance_from_trend": 0.031332, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 21.648266, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.068792, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -5.503359, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.015694, "excess_performance": -0.035542, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.031332, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.014776, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.068792, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.012226, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.055034, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.021889, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.015694, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.053642, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 24095, "relative_activity": 4.162995, "balance": 2.053642, "dry_up": 1.169898, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.022326, "annualized_volatility": 0.135562, "from_high_reference": -0.070783, "from_low_reference": 0.096045 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 22.434583, "fair_value_reference": 21.648266, "structural_low": 21.110001, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.001876, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.013745, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.052686, "worst_return": -0.077753, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.025864, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.034342, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.099052, "worst_return": -0.098359, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.006635, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.045069, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.167441, "worst_return": -0.098927, "sufficient": false 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"label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.032666, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.001038, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.018191, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.006314, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.016615, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.031714, 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22.297833, "fair_value": 21.550176, "relative_strength": -3.609017, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.703032, "energy": 68.650751, "activity_lines": [ 23.012667, 22.789409, 22.520678, 22.425387 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 23.07, "volume": 607, "typical_volume": 8083.05, "trend": 22.331417, "fair_value": 21.574683, "relative_strength": -4.373815, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.514779, "energy": 70.648524, "activity_lines": [ 23.066333, 22.865045, 22.590857, 22.475204 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 22.477501, "volume": 2303, "typical_volume": 5285.35, "trend": 22.353, "fair_value": 21.594519, "relative_strength": -7.574469, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 56.04086, "energy": 48.360239, "activity_lines": [ 22.909834, 22.823409, 22.604238, 22.484629 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 22.795, "volume": 80, "typical_volume": 4652.75, "trend": 22.389167, "fair_value": 21.617622, "relative_strength": -7.020517, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 51.765899, "energy": 31.131097, "activity_lines": [ 22.848667, 22.836137, 22.64606, 22.513145 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 23.137501, "volume": 24095, "typical_volume": 5787.9, "trend": 22.434583, "fair_value": 21.648266, "relative_strength": -5.503359, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 52.518692, "energy": 29.485775, "activity_lines": [ 22.904501, 22.905, 22.71631, 22.561425 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }